Bitcoin fell a bit on Monday, initially rallying early in the trading session over $61K as the weekend came to a close and pulled back once Asia trading opened, giving back all of the gains plus a bit more to end the trading session. This is a somewhat bullish candle not because of the close but because of the wick which pierced resistance at $60K, indicating the buying pressure is there, we just need continuation to form a bullish candle on the daily chart.
(March 15, 2021 7:30PM EST)
Short-Term:
Bitcoin slumped to start the week after a brief breakout over the weekend which was ultimately doused once markets opened Sunday night in Asia and then in Europe and the US. While Monday's daily candle ended up forming a bearish inverted hammer, we are in a bull market and BTC did print a new ATH, so I'm more inclined to think that the short-term traders and algos were the ones responsible for selling the rally here. Why? Long-term holders and institutions continue to accumulate, drying up exchanges' reserves to alarming lows, hinting at a potential supply crisis in the not-so-distant future.
As you can see in the BTC daily chart above, there's a horizontal line around $58K indicating minor local resistance and the previous rally's peak. Once Bitcoin decisively breaks above this level, we should see another test of $60K, and possibly a break. A break above $60K will, of course, open up Bitcoin to further price discovery up to the $65K and then $70K levels. Given Bitcoin's mega-cap size and substantial price, it should now move in $5,000 - $10K increments and consolidate accordingly in $10K or so ranges. Short-term dips are to be bought as BTC is still under the ATH but moving quickly in what looks like a classic breakout pattern developing.
In the event Bitcoin gets rejected at resistance around $58K and forms a double-top, Bitcoin could drop back down to $50K or even ~$45K which has been quite supportive and is further supported by the rising 50 Day EMA just below around $42.5K.
Bitcoin will likely not only hit our projected price targets but exceed them due to higher than anticipated inflation and government Quantitative Easing on a huge scale, especially starting H2 2021. I think $100K is not only on the table but a high likelihood in late 2021. Even the Stock to Flow Model for Bitcoin is well on track, pointing to a $100K - $200K Bitcoin, and the S2FX model points to a nearly $300K BTC end of this cycle.
Support:
1st support: $55K.
2nd support: Previous local resistance around $52K.
Floor: 50 Day EMA around $45K.
Resistance:
$60K, then $70K, then $10K intervals up to $100K.
