Sirwin
Sirwin

Parabolic Bitcoin Spring Run to $95K? (Weekly Forecast)

By Biz Wisdom | Crypto Daily FX | 8 Mar 2021


Bitcoin rallied during the week ending March 7th, starting off weak before rallying late into the week and over the weekend to close a green weekly candle just above the $50K level. This is a bullish candle as Bitcoin fended off early selling as the buyers stepped in to buy the dip around $45K, open the door to a potential path back to $60K.

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(March 7, 2021  7:30PM EST)

Short-Term: 

Bitcoin recovered nicely late the week and over the weekend as we continued to see institutions add to existing Bitcoin positions during the dip such as MicroStrategy as well as new ones such as Chinese Software company Meitu which added $17.9 million in Bitcoin to their balance sheet over the weekend. Bitcoin continues to be choppy as it finds its footing following a standard bull market correction which is to be expected when you consider Bitcoin’s seasonal weakness in Feb-March. If seasonality is any indication of what’s to come for Bitcoin, we should see Bitcoin gear up over the next few weeks for a precipitous rally to new highs in April-May but starting as early as late March.

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Returns by month — outliers excluded. Source: CoinMetrics, daily bitcoin price data for 18/07/2010 to 31/01/2020.

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BTC Seasonal Performance Pattern Since July 2010 (Source: Tradingview)

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BTC Performance in 2017 (Source: Sentix; Bloomberg)

 

Long-Term: 

The confluence of our EWT Wave 3 projection and Bitcoin monthly seasonality points to a rally that could send Bitcoin to about $95K by summer 2021 and a possible cycle peak as early as Q4 2021 somewhere in the range of $125K, or possibly much, much higher.

My crude Elliott Wave count for Bitcoin on the weekly chart shows a possible $94,000 Wave 3 target for Bitcoin as early as late 2021. By that measure, based on the price action as shown above, we are well within the projection and en route to this projection, which should take some time to play out but may only accelerate as Bitcoin's market cap grows, thus enabling conservative institutions on the sidelines enough reason to finally submit a buy order. This also coincides with multiple other models, such as Plan B's Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Model which plots a minimum $100K target that extends up to nearly $300K, as well as the logarithmic regression which projects a $115,000 - $140,000 Bitcoin price within the next year.

Weekly Newsflow:

  • Publicly-Traded Software Firm Meitu adds $17.9 million in Bitcoin over the weekend
  • $1.9 trillion stimulus package passed over the weekend
  • MSBC's Suze Orman: "I love Bitcoin"

The bigger Bitcoin gets the more legitimacy it gains = more institutional investors can justify taking initial positions, which would only add to the disproportionate demand vs supply. 

Support: 

Immediate support at 38.2% fib around $46.7K, then 50% fib around $43K, then floor at $40K. 

Resistance:

Immediate resistance at $60K, then $70K, $80K, etc. 

 

Buy Bitcoin here.

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Biz Wisdom
Biz Wisdom

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