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May = Seasonally Bullish for Bitcoin? (Weekly Forecast)

By Biz Wisdom | Crypto Daily FX | 3 May 2021


Bitcoin rallied last week, briefly dipping below the $50K level before quickly bouncing and finishing the weekly candle near the highs around $57K. This is a bullish candle and a bullish close as we look for this bullish momentum to follow us into Asian trading as we kick off another week. 

4553f79908b0075e887af838ba415193f98bb820e89ccd1625d2652ba0653eef.png

(May 2, 2021  8:30PM EST)

Short-Term: 

Bitcoin turned around in a big way, finding support last week and recovering over half of the previous week's losses. The fundamentals haven't changed so over the medium-long term we should see the uptrend continue. For now, we're looking for continuation of the short-term uptrend back up to $60K and the current ATH around $65K. 

 

 

May is seasonally bullish for BTC, so if BTC breaks above the $60K level with an impulsive candle, we should see a run to $65K and then $70K. Looking at the chart above, we have been trading in a relatively close $10K trading range for the past 2-3 months, only briefing breaking above $60K or below $50K. This suggests that during the next macro leg up, we should see a larger move commensurate with the length of this consolidation period. In other words, a stronger rally to compensate for this 2-3 month sideways trading.

S1 Ep17_5

Source: coinmarketcap.com, Incrementum AG.  

We should see continued bullishness and a breach of $60K in the next week or so, which is not a significant resistance level so we should see Bitcoin break higher by April the latest. Once Bitcoin impulsively breaks above $60K and holds it, we should see a run-up to $70K, $80K, and over the medium-term, $100K. But to keep things in perspective, $10K moves are likely to be the norm going forward. 

 

 

Long-Term: 

Below is the Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) weekly chart. As you can see in the circles below, we're now roughly at or below the July 2017 levels where Bitcoin started a summer rally to new highs by the end of Q3 before making one final correction before the ultimate parabolic run up. However, it looks like we have technically closed below the 50% Bitcoin Dominance level, pointing to a possible lower low. This, of course, would be bad for BTC but good for Altcoins. If BTC holds onto this level and rallies, then this could usher in the next Bitcoin rally to new highs, around 65-70% BTC.D.

13f0f5fe1a494794acef5cf2daca1cc734f9616312084d223f5c9572a8fd385f.png

 

 

Support: $50K. 

Resistance: $60K, then $70K, $80K, then $100K. 

 

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Biz Wisdom
Biz Wisdom

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