There's reason to believe, based on the data, that this time the music really has stopped for good. Please take your seats, it will be a decent recap of all the financial events going on since COVID19.

First let's look at the money supply:

This chart should be familiar to anyone reading the writing on the wall. There is too much money in the system causing inflation.

Reverse repos continue to be done at a historic level.

“The last official act of any government is to loot the treasury.”

The inflation is recorded as 8.5%.

I don't really believe this is true. The lowest anything I found was 11% on pasta.

Gas is a huge driver because everything goes up when gas goes up.

Gas up 40% is insanity. I can never find a source, but I've been frequently told by boomers that once the price of gas is at half of minimum wage, anyone working for minimum wage will no longer work as it is unfeasible.

The unemployment rate is somehow at 3.9%.

None of that makes sense. Are you telling me that employment has increased to the levels of 2016? There was such a growth in 2016, almost everyone was reinvigorated to go work.

Jobs are at an incredibly high turnover rate.

1/5 people quitting yearly isn't enough to even train someone at a skilled job.
Even at fast food places, it takes 3 months of training minimum before someone actually contributes to a workplace.

    There is also a giant amount of missing labor force. We are missing 6 million workers. Where are they? Sure, some died due to COVID, but 6 million?       There are tons of supply chain issues. Just a few hours ago there were complaints about baby formula shortages.

I'm sure at least one product you've tried to order is permanently out of stock or no longer existing. It isn't just delays. Some things are simply not being created anymore.       Now how does this relate to the markets? As explained in the posts before:
- There is too much money in the system
- Inflation is at a record high
- Unemployment rate is somehow low
- But there is no incredibly high turnover
- There is a missing labor force.
- Supply chain issues

This all has anyone wonder where people are getting their money? Some would speculate it's doge, BTC, loans, etc. Well let's take a look at debt rates.           The debt rate makes sense a little bit as we know there is currently a housing boom.
Somehow the least wealthy generation has been gaining houses.

To anyone paying attention the last time too many people bought houses they couldn't afford it crashed everything. This is looking very similar, but what are the actual stats?       That's a lot of debt, but honestly can be explained other than the sharp slope in the last year.

If we look specifically at the graph on the bottom, specifically at credit card debt, something funny happens.

There is an uptick specifically from 2021 in specifically Credit Card debt, which is unnatural to say the least.         Well if all this is true, and it's really over, shouldn't we be seeing it in the markets?

Well we are.

Starting with NFLX.
Netflix posted a subscriber loss.
Netflix is a luxury good that would be one of the first things that people cut. It makes sense that if people have to reduce spending, then Netflix is the first to go.         Now maybe this is just a one off event. Maybe wokeism has finally caught up and people have had enough of Trans Nigger Feminism garbage on Netflix. I don't really buy that theory because even Cuties didn't cause sub loss.

A few days later....

Amazon posted a loss.
Amazon would also be high up on the list of companies that suffer when the going gets tough. People need to reduce spending, so they stop buying Amazon products as frequently.         And recently, BTC has been dumping hard. Markets are down everywhere, but what's next? If we look at the comparison between 2008 and 2022 the comparisons are similar, but just zoom in and zoom out and you can make charts look like anything.

Personally I think there will be one last rally this week of 5%. Because there is one stock that is actually doing decently against the rest.....           Enter WALMART

It has been holding out strongly.
Why?
Well the last time they posted earnings they had been relatively positive.
They seem relatively unphased by supply chain bullshit.
Or have they?

This is where my gut feeling kicks in because I have no real stats on it.
From what I know about SCM there is a rolling warehouse to shelf stock time.
Some products take months to go from warehouse to shelf.

Recently however, everyone has been feeling the crunch of the prices.
In the last few months, almost everything is up.

What would that cause? Spending to go down.

And what does that mean?           Walmart's next earnings report is on May 17th.

This gives us ample time to have a decent rally before the last domino falls.

Because of everything I have posted, I predict that Walmart will post a loss kicking off massive failures pretty much everywhere. It also conveniently lines up with the moon chart.

So mark your calendars.

5/17 will be the day they put into history books.