Bitcoin rallied again on Thursday, dipping below the $55K level early in the day before promptly being bought up, closing the daily candle in the green just north of $57K. This hammer is slightly bullish with a hint of a local top as the early selling indicates some profit-taking as Bitcoin approaches the ATH around $58,330.
(March 10, 2021 7:30PM EST)
Short-Term:
Bitcoin nearly tested the ATH today, falling just short around $58K on the dot. The recent bullish price action leads me to believe that Bitcoin may flaunt its crypto 24/7 muscles again by making a push for $60K over the weekend. I anticipate there will be a bit of resistance as it's simply a large, round psychological number, and Bitcoin experienced a ~7% selloff early in the day before the buyers stepped in. A break above $60K will, of course, open up Bitcoin to further price discovery up to the $65K and then $70K levels. Given Bitcoin's mega-cap size and substantial price, it should now move in $5,000 - $10K increments and consolidate accordingly in $10K or so ranges. Short-term dips are to be bought as BTC is still under the ATH but moving quickly in what looks like a classic breakout pattern developing.
In the event Bitcoin gets rejected at resistance around $58K and forms a double-top, Bitcoin could drop back down to $50K or even ~$45K which has been quite supportive and is further supported by the rising 50 Day EMA just below around $42.5K.
Long(er)-Term:
With a new local bottom in, Bitcoin has begun a new impulsive wave higher. A conservative measured move of 1.612% of the micro W1 that just terminated around $58K measures up to the 2.272% Fibonacci extension level around $99K. A more aggressive move measuring 2.612% of the recent W1 would send Bitcoin up closer to $125K. But first, as you can see below, Bitcoin is replicating the December 2020-Jan 2021 rally and pullback, which resulted in a $10K+ breakout rally. If the bullish trend continues, which we strongly expect it to, then we could see Bitcoin breakout and rally to $70K in the next few weeks. Seasonality is lining up this time again and may be pointing to another spring rally like in 2017 and another late-year blowoff top in which BTC exceeds $100K or possibly even $200K.
Bitcoin will likely not only hit our projected price targets but exceed them due to higher than anticipated inflation and government Quantitative Easing on a huge scale, especially starting H2 2021. I think $100K is not only on the table but a high likelihood in late 2021. Even the Stock to Flow Model for Bitcoin is well on track, pointing to a $100K - $200K Bitcoin, and the S2FX model points to a nearly $300K BTC end of this cycle.
Support:
1st support: Previous local resistance around $52K.
2nd support: $50K.
Floor: 50 Day EMA around $42.5K.
Resistance:
$60K, then $70K.
