Bitcoin had a nasty fall on Thursday, getting rejected at the $55K level before falling hard, dropping under the $52K level and closing the daily candle at the lows. This is a bearish candle as Bitcoin has now broken below the 50 Day EMA which was been a surefire buy indicator in this bull market.
(April 22, 2021 8:30PM EST)
We're not in panic mode but we are acutely aware of Bitcoin breaking below the 50 Day EMA. It was a bearish close below the line although technically we haven't seen any bearish followthrough lower. If we see a break below $50K, then we'll look towards $45K, the March low, and then $40K, ultimately our floor as it was the previous high/resistance from the Dec-Jan rally. However, in the meantime we are still in a BTFD scenario. In fact, if Bitcoin turns around, buying today was a 12% discount. Not bad for mid-bull run.
5 Reasons We're Still Bullish:
1. Still in $10K range between $50K - $60K. BTC is now trading in $10K ranges, so the daily and even weekly oscillations will be larger in fiat denominations, but the percentage moves aren't that big.
2. Plenty of support underneath. $50K is a large, round, flat psychological number, then $45K, then $40K, the previous rally's high which we technically never tested as support.
3. The trend is still up. Don't fight the trend. The trend is the trend until it's not, and we're going to need more validation if we're going to change macro views.
4. Sector rotation. Alts have their day every once in a while; it's a natural market occurrence for investors to take profits in their big caps (BTC, ETH) and roll into small- and mid-caps (BAT, ZRX, LRC, etc.). Nothing out of the ordinary here.
5. Fundamentals. Supply is low and ever-decreasing, while demand is high and only increasing.
Bitcoin's RSI slipped to 40 and is in a steep decline. Keep an eye for when Bitcoin's RSI reaches oversold (<30).
Support: $50K, then $45K, and $40K. Absolute floor is ~$34K.
Resistance: $60K, $65K, $70K, then $10K intervals up to $100K.