Sirwin
Sirwin

Bitcoin Dominance Won't Stay This Low For Long (Apr 12 Forecast)

By Biz Wisdom | Crypto Daily FX | 10 Apr 2021


Bitcoin rallied a bit on Friday, perking up to about the $59K level before finishing the trading session just above $58K. We're closing out another week just under the major resistance level around $60K and an ascending triangle pointing to higher highs sooner or later. 

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(April 9, 2021  8:30PM EST)

Short-Term:

Bitcoin ends the week at the end of another tightening ascending triangle near the highs. As you can see in the chart above, this is the micro ascending triangle Bitcoin has formed in 2021 thus far which typically result in bullish breakouts. However, if you zoom out a bit, technically the two most recent triangle pattern could actually form a larger ascending triangle pattern too. This confluence of bullish technical patterns and price action scream higher prices soon, so I would be flabbergasted if Bitcoin is less than $65K by May 1. Bitcoin and crypto are notorious for making moves and breaking resistance levels over the thinly traded weekend markets when institutional money is offline, so we could be set up for a green wakeup tomorrow or Sunday.

 

If Bitcoin breaks above $60K with an impulsive candle and clears $62K, that should open the floodgates to $65K and $70K in relatively short order. Given Bitcoin's mid-five-figure price now, multiple-thousand dollar intraday price swings are the norm. By that measure, $65K or even $70K might be too conservative to be considered a "rally." $100K is absolutely on the table for Q3, maybe even Q2. 

 

Bitcoin's RSI is 59 and on a slow rise for the past few days, trending in the right direction but still allowing plenty of upside. 

 

Bitcoin Dominance

As you can see in the chart below, Bitcoin's dominance is the lowest since April 2019 during the post-COVID crash recovery. Despite today's altcoin surge, altseasons tend to be short-lived, and when this early in a bull cycle they usually preclude a Bitcoin rally. Accordingly, after this altcoin rotation concludes, we can probably expect a Bitcoin rally in market cap dominance to the 65% - 70% level. Also, as you can see in the chart below, we may be tracking 2017 similarly in that we may be roughly in May or June 2017 when Bitcoin dominance fell before a stupendous rally to $5,000 in summer 2017. If that's the case, then we could be setting up for a similarly powerful rally starting in the next few weeks that could take us closer to or even above $100K. 

09db0274257d210862a523bcfbfd24618579ca47fdc57ea3836a99ab3548c5a2.png

 

Fundamentals:

2020-2021 has been a fascinating case study for the institutional inflows into Bitcoin, particularly how Bitcoin is siphoning capital that has historically been allocated to gold. This should come as no surprise, as gold has barely moved over the past 12 months whereas BTC is up over 1,000%. If this is a glimpse into the future, then this bodes poorly for gold and bullishly for Bitcoin over time.

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Support: Immediate tentative support at $55K, 50 Day EMA at$50K.

 

Resistance: $60K, $65K, $70K, then $10K intervals up to $100K.

 

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Biz Wisdom
Biz Wisdom

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