Bitcoin broke down on Wednesday, getting rejected again by resistance at the $12,000 level and ending Bitcoin's 3 day green candle streak. This area has between $11,000 and $12,000 has been very contentious and it appears Bitcoin may be stuck in this range for a while yet, as long as support holds on.
(September 2, 2020 8:00 PM EST)
Bitcoin fell hard Wednesday as it fell to press the $12,000, falling hard down below the $11,500 to about $11,300. This is a bearish engulfing candle, which is of course a negative sign, but I believe this had something to do with gold falling hard today as well.
Look for support around the $11,000 level, which is now where the 50 Day EMA is rapidly approaching ($10,800), ironclad support around $10,000, and the 200 Day EMA around $9,314. I don't see much selling pressure going forward, but even so, I think Bitcoin's downside is limited and should be treated as a BTFD scenario until the trend changes. That being said, there's no way I'm shorting Bitcoin, only continuing to accumulate. It is very obvious that the equity markets are extremely overstretched and by no measure should be valued anywhere close to sky high levels they are every day, but that is the reality we are in now. That being said, nothing can go up forever -- anyone in crypto in 2018 knows this well -- so there will eventually be a pullback in equities which may be drag down BTC with it, temporarily at least. If this occurs, I would expect this would be the last golden buying opportunity for Bitcoin before its ascent to new highs.
If BTC can break back above $12,000, this should set up Bitcoin for a run up to $14,000, and then we can start talking about new all-time high targets. Quantitative Easing and infinitely inflating the fiat market with more paper money does not have an instantaneous effect; although, it has not taken long to start to have an impact on Bitcoin. Look for continued strength in the medium-long term, as the short-term is volatile and should only be traded by experts and good algos. Use this time to continue accumulating, even in smaller tranches. This time next year, there is very little chance Bitcoin is trading at less than what it is today.
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