(September 16, 2020 8:00 PM EST)
Bitcoin rallied for the 6th consecutive day, piercing the $11,000 level overhead before closing just under the resistance level. After breaking through support at the 50 Day EMA, Bitcoin found support at the $10,000 level, bouncing from there. There is a lot of uncertainty in all markets right now, so there are a lot of idle hands waiting for direction in the form of a major move up or down. While Bitcoin buyers are clearly willing to BTFD, Bitcoin might be trying to churn up some more momentum for another move higher.
Interestingly, Bitcoin was uncorrelated from the equities markets today as they fell during and after FOMC minutes, while BTC rallied. Gold also sold off in a small way, shedding 15-20 points from the highs of the day to the lows, but finishing red nonetheless. The argument for BTC as an uncorrelated asset, monetary hedge, and Gold 2.0 grows stronger by the day. MicroStrategy, the firm that announced not long ago that they purchased $225 million worth of BTC as part of the company's wealth preservation strategy, announced just now that they more recently added to their BTC allocation, purchasing another 16,000+ Bitcoin.
Support: There is a lot of psychological support at the $10,000 level, so naturally there was buying pressure there, where I'm sure some shorts covered or set trailing stops. Look for immediate support at the 50 Day EMA around $10,688, the $10,000 level, and the 200 Day EMA around $9,444.
Resistance: Look for Bitcoin to test $11,000 again, and if successfully breaks above it again, then next is $12,000. I don't think this is particularly likely in the short term, as there's a lot of uncertainty in all markets right now. In the medium-term, I think this is a bargain price for Bitcoin and a good time to continue DCA'ing with small tranches. If you zoom out (I'll show this tomorrow), you can see Bitcoin is still well within a valid uptrend and continues to see higher volume and higher highs since earlier this year.
I think at this point Bitcoin is likely to trade in a range between $10,000 and $11,000 until there is a catalyst for a significant move in either direction. There is clearly increased volatility and uncertainty in the markets, and with a tense US election only 6 weeks away, there is sure to be market turbulence in the near future. Equities have gone an impossible tear since the March lows, and are only now starting to see some much overdue correctiveness. Look for this trend to continue as investors lock in profits, volatility speculators enter, and Bitcoin starts to see some collateral action as well.
I post these insights because I like learning, analyzing data, and taking calculated risks. If the community likes these posts, I will continue posting them on a daily basis. If not, no harm, I will keep them to myself.