Ethereum sold off during the week ending January 17th, initially dropping below the $900 level before recovering back above $1,000, closing the week in the red just under $1,200. This is a massive Doji candle with a bearish tilt as ETH shed almost 40% in a single 24-hour period before recovering about half of the previous week's gains. Based on the previous week's sentiment and bearish close of the weekly candle, ETH looks ready to continue drifting lower as volatility creeps up again in response to traditional markets inverting.
(January 10, 2020 7:30 PM EST)
Outlook: Ethereum nearly scraped its ATH last week before getting rejected, giving back most of the gains to form an inverted hammer as crypto, gold, and equities sold off in very similar timeframes as the US dollar rebounded. ETH will likely follow suit if not lead cryptos lower. I think a pullback is likely, probably taking us back under $1,000 -- possibly for the last time -- to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level around $950, 50% at $830, or even 61.8% fib around $700. All of the above are great discounts on ETH for the medium-long term as this may be the last time to get ETH sub-$1,000. The deeper ETH pulls back, the stronger the bounce will be as no one in their right mind would short ETH at lower levels when it's in a clearly defined uptrend and crypto bull markets are notoriously neck-breaking, especially given the prospect of ETH outperforming BTC during this bull market and going forward.I think ETH under $1,000 is great value, so to be able to buy ETH in the three-figures is a great discount - even in the medium term! This would be the perfect time to buy ETH or even find a way earn ETH however possible.
As you can see in my ETH projection above, I think a ~30% correction for ETH goes to somewhere around $800 or so -- probably not much lower -- where the buyers step in in a big way bringing ETH back to the ATH-region, followed by a weak rejection, and finally a breakout above to new highs. Ignore the timescale as this projection is more about the path and price levels than the timeframe. That being said, this pattern could play out before H1 2021 even ends, as logarithmic charts and longer-term models project 2021 to be even more bullish for cryptos than 2020, in which ETH rallied over 450%.
Support: I'm looking for support somewhere between the $750 - $1,000 level. I think there's a good chance ETH will at least spike below $1,000 -- not sure how deep, but that may be best determined by examining the first chart above and setting staggered buy orders at different retracement levels. I'm looking for heavy support around ~$850 as I want to add to my position sub-$1,000 before ETH bounces higher again.
Resistance: $1,300 and $1,400 are my immediate resistance levels, AKA the ATH, which is an arbitrary number. There aren't a ton of sell orders there, so it shouldn't be particularly resistive compared to Bitcoin's $20K. Once ETH breaks above $1,400, I think it's a quick shot to $1,500 and then $2,000.