Up to 14:30 pm this afternoon, the BTC position price distribution fluctuation data from 22 pm last night to now in the BTC chain, although it has experienced a long time, but at the current weekend is still in the low circulation situation, the problem is not big. You can see that the number of new BTC chips added over the course of more than 16 hours is about 80,000, and the average fluctuation is about 4,900 BTCs per hour.

From the extreme prices on both sides, the long position and the high position of the BTC have been changed by more than 730 pieces in the course of 16 and a half hours, which means that the chips holding positions more than half a year remain flat, and the average movement is less than 50 pieces per hour. At $25,000, only 4,500 of the overall chips are down, with an average change of around 270 BTCs per hour, which is also a very normal weekend figure. It also shows that the earlier holdings of BTC, whether loss chips or profit chips, continued to be uninvolved in the weekend price dispute. and a weekend in which few large price declines are likely in a price war, and there is no sign that Friday's skirmish has spread, with more selling pressure still concentrated in the current dispute. The data will give a clearer picture of whether the main culling is a loss. This is true for BTCs and even ETHs more often than not, when prices rise, more profit chips leave the market, and when prices fall, more loss chips keep selling. And precisely because the two sides of the game are just one month of new bottom chips in the game, and with the accumulation of short-term bottom chips more and more, the volatility of prices will be more and more. Since more than 3 million BTCs have been accumulated between $19,000 and $24,000, even if the early holdings are unchanged, there are too many newly accumulated chips, and even a small number of these chips may cause a great deal of damage. However, when prices recover to around $21,000, only 1.65 million chips will be accumulated during this period, which will weaken relative amplitudes. Unfortunately, there is no ETH version of this data, so the ETH data can only be referenced by the BTC. However, it is conceivable that if the BTC falls ahead of the curve, more ETH in stock will have a higher probability of falling by the wayside if prices do not recover quickly, and if a fall by the wayside occurs, panic will spread further. This is why it is recommended not to take a positive view on consolidation but to exchange rates with currency-earning partners. Although today is Sunday, no macro market changes, the dollar index has been climbing since last Thursday when the euro weakened and the Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates. In particular, the expectation in the European media over the weekend that higher energy expenditures will lead more Europeans to have to pay high winter expenses. Moreover, there is no let-up trend in European inflation, which will also lead to lower venture capital for Europeans.

Looking at the market value of the four major unstable currencies, USDT was still in a narrow swing process, with a slight increase in the market value of tens of thousands of dollars as of 8 a.m. this morning, while USDC continued to decline substantially, with a further $280 million in sales as of 8 a.m. this trend is similar to the USDT that was shorted earlier, reflecting investor resistance to strong regulatory stabilization, but in fact for the average user. This is not necessarily a bad thing, as the bear market has witnessed more and more money theft, especially the cross-chain bridge is almost a hacker's paradise. Without mandatory supervision, the losses caused to the ordinary user will only be more serious, and for the ordinary trading users, will barely touch the regulatory control. Most of the money that left USDC chose to join BUSD, which was essentially no different and subject to regulation. Another is the market value data of the new DAI, although the market value of DAI is still very low, but when the DAI reduces the USDC endorsement and deepens the ETH mortgage, the change of DAI market value can be seen as the change of ETH spot leverage, when the market value of DAI decreases, on the one hand because of the reduction of USDC, on the other hand is likely to represent the reduction of ETH circular borrowing (spot leverage) (not excluding the clearing of ETH chain). From today's BTC into the exchange selling pressure and the exchange cash withdrawal data can also be found, with the stability of sentiment, the amount of selling pressure into and out is almost the same as yesterday, it is standard weekend data, and the amount of selling pressure out of the withdrawal does not appear more purchase because of the price reduction, it is almost maintain the level movement, although it is difficult to trigger large-scale price changes, but it is in low circulation after all, still need to be careful about the sharp increase and drop. ETH and BTC are far behind. From yesterday evening's data analysis, it has been indicated that the increase of ETH selling pressure and transfer volume are higher, and will also produce larger fluctuations. Today's data still show the same situation. The selling pressure of the exchange is not reduced because of the weekend, but the same purchasing power is also in a positive response, but still feel the purchasing power has been somewhat wasted. In the last 48 hours of exchange data can be seen more clearly, although there is a lot of selling pressure with the decline in ETH price, even causing panic, but the mood of buying is still high, the high stock will be consumed in almost 24 hours, and even will reduce the early stock in the exchange a lot, so you can see that there are still many investors optimistic about the merger of ETH.

But it must be acknowledged that there are still relatively too many ETH beneficiaries, and it has been reiterated time and again that many of the chips have already been moved to the exchanges at the top of the price scale, with the intention of leaving when prices fall below the mark. This massive selling pressure is bound to cause panic in relation to the BTC, especially as the fall exceeds the BTC, with the exchange rate first signaling the risks.

In terms of the current BTC and ETH's long-short sentiment, it can be inferred from the fund rate of the perpetual contracts that the current situation, whether BTC or ETH, is in a large bearish state, which means that more investors believe that the current rebound condition has ended and the market will continue to follow the downward trend. But, in the wider context, the economic-versus-inflationary game is ongoing, and the Fed is not directly arguing the case. Therefore, the next relatively important date is next Friday. First, there will be the July PCE data, which currently looks good for the economic camp. Second, after the PCE data is released, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will address the annual Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference, in which he will be able to reveal some views on the Fed's next rate hike and the federal funds rate at the end of the year. But what matters remains the non-farm data for September, which determine the upper limit for the Fed to raise rates, and the CPI data for August, which extrapolate the lower limit. A highly correlated nanoindex reaction also drives the direction of the money market, so early conclusions are not appropriate. And until the macro changes, currency markets remain volatile, especially as the ETH merger remains unfinished.