Current Summary:

It is emphasized almost weekly that the fall in circulation comes into the weekend, when the main money and the main selling pressure vacate, reflecting a chain-link swing that is almost a real user state. It is also because of the decrease in circulation, the decrease in the amount of capital, will lead to a small amount of capital can pull the market, a small amount of chips can smash the market will jump up and down. Even though it is still a holiday in Europe and the United States, with European business hours gradually starting at 15 p.m., the United States will have to wait until U.S. stocks open. So a wide price shock over a weekend is a good possibility, but because the macro trends have not changed and the ETH merger continues to dominate the currency market, even a big rise or fall can be quickly corrected. After all, the main reason for the price stability changes is to have changes in the amount of funds, especially the entrance of external funds determines the maximum limit that the BTC and ETH can go up, and the purchasing power of internal funds determines the current trend of BTC and ETH. Money is the sole criterion for determining price movements in any risk market, and it is irresponsible to analyze market movements without it. Regardless of the macro, mood, positive, short, news, hype and so on are all the reasons that affect the funds, rather than the result of the impact on prices. And undoubtedly, what can have the greatest impact on the funds at present is the macro mood, and secondly is because of the good news generated by the ETH merger. And neither of these "fundamentals" has changed now, so how is it possible that a situation will change, more than just a matter of people disturbing themselves?

Since 4 a.m., some of the financial markets in the United States have started work, and the dollar index has started to rise at the opening, albeit to a lesser extent, owing to changes in the exchange rates of the euro and the yen against the dollar. With no further comment from the Fed, the 50 basis-point increase forecast for September still dominates, meaning that the talk of a DXY peaking is almost unproblematic, and the risk markets are becoming more attractive to money.

Although Treasuries have been acting strangely recently, they have been releasing funds when they open. From 4 a.m. to the present, except for the two-year Treasury bonds with obvious purchasing intention, all the other U.S. Treasury bonds are continuing to be sold. In general, short-term U.S. Treasury bonds have been exposed to a yield of 3%, while in the medium-term U.S. Treasury bonds have also achieved a yield of 2.9%, but there is no money coming in. Or because the money leaving the market is too big and continues to make the money entering the market unobtrusive.

Although the rising yield foreshadows a lot of capital leaving, there is no obvious sign of capital entering the risk market after the exit. Although U.S. stocks are also rising with volatility, the extent is limited, and it is not like a trend of a lot of capital entering. And the gold market is not likely to carry a lot of capital. However, it is important to note that after the DXY peak, non-US gold assets such as gold will rise.

It is not clear that the money that left the bond market has entered the currency market, because while the market value of USDT has continued to rise, especially over a weekend that has seen $400 million increase, the value of USDC has decreased by nearly $200 million, and over time, the decrease in USDC is roughly equivalent to the increase in USDT, and the value of the two stablecoins has increased by less than $200 million over the last week. But it is a growing trend, especially with USDT as the main source of purchases, and the increase in external funding is helping to increase confidence in the money on the market. After all, even though the interest rate increases, the capital in the risk market will become more and more attractive. Even though the US Treasury has never failed to honor its debt, buying US Treasury bonds is a risk-free channel for increasing the value, especially now that the market is still in a bear market.

And from the point of view of the funds in the market, the weekend is still to return to the market at the weekend. Although the buying sentiment is still high, but the funds in the hands of retail investors are still limited after all. So the purchasing power of the exchange whether USDT or USDC is in the downward trend, and relatively more funds are still coming into the BTC, and because of the rapid growth of ETH, more investors are afraid to follow the high.

As of 8:00 this morning, the BTC and ETH have drawn money from the exchange. The total value of the BTC leaving the exchange is $520 million, while the total value of the ETH leaving the exchange during the same period is only $210 million, even less than half of the BTC. This shows that although the main emotion is in the ETH right now, the increase in the ETH has exceeded the expectations of many investors, and the increase in the BTC is relatively low. So more investors have looked from the ETH to the BTC, thought that there should be a wave of BTC to complete the growth, or thought that the BTC's current stable base is good for the next development, or really thought that the BTC is a relatively bottom area, but in any case, with the current bullish macro sentiment and the favorable combination of ETH, the highly interdependent BTC and ETH are still the biggest beneficiaries.

What should be noted in particular is that Asian capital has contributed a lot to this ETH wave's rise, especially when the price has been on a downward trend. There has been an abnormal "bargain" trend among Asian capital, and it can be seen from the detailed data that purchasing power from Asian time has indeed increased in the recent period.

From the level of selling pressure, the circulation on Saturday is relatively higher, but on Sunday dropped a lot, from the selling pressure data up to 8:00 this morning, both BTC and ETH selling pressure showed a tendency to shrink, circulation further reduced, the amount of capital is further reduced, so for price trends, the situation on the weekend does not represent the normal price, or to see whether the workday will be corrected. As of 9:30 this morning, it is also clear from the BTC position price distribution that apart from the current dispute price, there is almost no demand for address changes for the earlier held chips. They are still in the flat stage. If the chips are not changed, it is difficult for the prices to fall sharply. And, based on current macro sentiment, this part of the table does stand to gain more.