After all, the decline of U.S. stocks led to the worst day in nearly two years, and most importantly, it cannot even be called the bottom of the stock market at the moment. After all, with the core CPI elevated, this implies that the rate hike will not be reduced, and the most important point is that the terminal rate for 2022 is not clear. The end-of-2022 rate change represents the Fed's overall plan to raise interest rates. At this point, the end-of-2022 rate change represents the total of the next three to four interest-rate increases. The current Fed Funds rate is already 2.5%, based on the current consensus of 4% and a projected 75-basis-point increase in September, leaving 75 basis-point increases in November and December (not a very likely outcome of the October meeting) Judging from the market's expectations of a 75-basis-point hike in September, a 50-basis-point hike in November, and a 25-basis-point hike in December, it is indeed premature to talk about the bottom in the risk markets. If a 75-basis-point hike is expected after next week, the market may temporarily rebound as soon as it has already anticipated, but the result of the hike will certainly take effect over time. We talked about this earlier in the week. If this is not a bottom now, then the bottom for this year will most likely appear in September and October. And whether there will be a more significant drop in the logo mainly depends on the terminal interest rate. At present, if the terminal interest rate remains below 3.75%, it can be considered as a positive. Staying at 4% should be current expectations; And if it's 4.25% or higher, then basically this mid-term election in the United States will end a history. After 56 years of a mid-term election in which the US stock market has done well, this is the end of it. 4.25% means that the last two rate rises this year will be either 50+50 or 75+25, and that either would be very damaging to risk markets. That depends on what happens next to inflation, which is known to be partly due to geopolitical tensions, and very little the Fed can do.

Especially since the United States is short of strategic petroleum reserves, and Biden is prepared to spend $80 to buy oil, both oil prices have been soaring. Brent has been staying at around $95, while WTI has increased from $85 to near $90. Judging from oil prices alone, the energy CPI for September is already higher than that for August, and since September is half past, the housing problem, the main contributor to core inflation, has not been eased at all.

With housing costs up 0.7% quarter-on-quarter, the fastest pace of increase since 1991, rents making up the biggest chunk of the cost of housing, and with the fall semester set to start in September, when leases expire and rents set to rise again, the August reading is all the signs that the Fed is under the greatest pressure yet, that inflation has indeed peaked.

If inflation does not peak, the Fed will have to do much more. It will have to keep raising rates and shrinking its balance sheet. It will have to raise rates now, waiting for the terminal rate. On balance sheet, the US Treasury is in a very bad spot. With the exception of three-month Treasury purchases, medium-term yields have been at several-year highs but remain elusive, and long-term Treasury yields have been periodically elevated, with few purchases. Under such circumstances, the Fed would stop selling US Treasury bonds, meaning that failure to meet maturities could cause the US Treasury market, which has already dried up in circulation, to shrink further. More MBS deflation is a real possibility, something that Fed officials have been briefed on recently, but it amounts to a relatively modest increase of 25 basis points, compared to the current 4% end rate in 2022. So, that's why CPI was still falling in August, but it's still causing risk markets to drop so much. That's why macro sentiment has changed, and because there's an opportunity to look forward to since the terminal rate was not announced, but that's not a long time to run. Next week's Fed hike will most likely reveal some of the terminal rate forecasts, so the market is likely to be a little more pessimistic next week. Now I don't want to do that much anymore, just a few hours later is the time for ETH merger. Looking at the data from the chain, it's not friendly. The ETH stock in the exchange is already close to the highest inventory value for nearly half a year, which means that a lot of chips are moving from the chain to the exchange, not to get more short bets, but to get out of the market as soon as possible when prices go down.

Emotionally, ETH, which has been bearish lately, is now even worse, and I believe it's not the end of the line yet. It's likely that some investors will choose to be bearish before the merger, so the percentage that could be bearish will be even worse, if it's just for short-term bets, there really isn't a need to go for perpetual contracts, of course, it's better to go deep than perpetual, and there's less money to go for other bets So many small partners have gone up 125 times, or are about to go up empty. It's no big deal. The risk warning is not very meaningful. But it's better to have the awareness that all these funds will go down in the red before paying bills. Although the possibility of falling is indeed high on the trend, it doesn't mean that it won't fall, and when it will "rebound after falling over the top." Moreover, the time for the merger is probably around 14:30 p.m. Beijing time. This means that neither the Europeans nor the Americans are the main trading timezone during this period, and relatively speaking Los Angeles is around 23:30 local time, while New York is around 2:30, while in Europe generally it is around 2:30 in the morning, which represents the relatively small number of users who are likely to be involved in ETH selling in the first place, especially as institutions may not respond in the first place unless they drive a significant change in BTC prices.

As time goes on, there will be fewer players in the U.S. and more and more players in Europe, so in addition to the large selling pressure that may occur at the beginning of the merger, it is really difficult to be certain what will happen next, and price estimates also need to have a psychological expectation that even if the ETH selling pressure is too heavy, the selling pressure up to 8 a.m. is already the second highest in nearly half a year. This is second only to the June sell-off, and even higher than the LUNA storm surge, which brought the ETH price down from around $1,800 to over $800 in the short term. This time, the sell-off from the June drop should be similar, depending on whether it lasts longer.

From the stock values which have reached a high level, the ETH in the inventory increased by almost 1.45 million units in the last 24 hours, a direct increase of 5%. Nearly 70% of the new transfers are into Binance, while about 10% of the new transfers are into Bitfinex. The only difference is that Gemini, on the contrary, has seen a larger withdrawal. And the Binance had a transfer in of more than 450,000 ETHs at 0:40 Beijing time. And ETH's current stock-exchange volume has already surpassed its highest level in nearly half a year. The risk factor has increased significantly.

Forget the ETHs that existed before, just these chips now. If all of them look for the exit, the possibility of inserting a needle into them will be very large. The price has no purpose to predict. The only thing to be hinted at is that there is still some time before the merger. The exchange rate with the BTC is still in a good position. If you have the ETH and don't want to sell it, switching to the BTC may not be a good idea. Even if there is a black swan, the ETH price will rise rather than fall, which must be helpful to the BTC. And if it is not replaced now, when the ETH price falls, many investors will choose to swap for the BTC to avoid risk, at which time the exchange rate is difficult to estimate. But to be honest, I won't change it, not because I'm more of a gambler, but because I personally still think it's only temporary. In the last two or three months I've suggested the lads do exchange rate swaps. I've done so two or three times already, and instead of losing money on the exchange rate, the ball is rolling around around around 0.08 again. Indeed, if I did this several times, it would probably not be a big deal to see a 15% increase in the currency, but I still didn't do it, either because of laziness or because I didn't want to concentrate on my trades, which I've never done correctly. And once there, it's very likely that you lose your sense and your sense of normalcy, and it's actually bad for your analysis. So, it's better for me to lie flat, which isn't for everyone, so if you care more about gold or the losses on the currency standard, either hedge against them or use the exchange rate to increase the gains on the currency standard. And I, with more than 800 dollars coming, just walked again, and instead I'd buy it cheap.

Today there is no more than analysis of the BTC, we all know that today's analysis is of no great significance. The entire market will be led by the ETH, no matter what chips they hold. If the ETH falls in a large scale, the BTC, among others, will be hit by the exchange rate. So unless you have a short position, you should be prepared, while you still have time. Let's hope this merger goes smoothly. It's a currency market epic. And good luck to all of you. And good luck to all of you. May I keep my heart and keep the light of day.