Yes, the Nasdaq futures hit another record low after a weekend of cooling-off, driving down both BTC and ETH prices. While currency declines may not seem as dramatic as those in the U.S., the tech-heavy BTC and ETH have no way out on their own.

So the simplest calculation can tell that only if the Nasdaq stops falling and the overall U.S. stocks rebound will the currency market sweep away the current gloom. Even if many of the partners think that the BTC and ETH can't fall now, this is only based on the fact that the currency market has a small amount of bulk and the liquidation hasn't been touched yet. But if the overall risk market goes into a sharp decline, the currency market will probably also have a new round of bottoming out.

This is not a myth. First of all, it is clear from the statistics of the chain data that the $19,000 single stock BTC has already reached the threshold of 1 million, even including the stock of the exchange. But with the total stock value of only 2.3 million, users must have the majority of chips, which means that a narrow shock is acceptable. Once a large-scale selling pressure occurs, it will trigger a chain stampede.

Leaving one million would be a new low for the BTC, with 20% of short-term chips leaving the market at the same time. The ETH would be even more complicated than the BTC, with the stock of BTC still hovering at the bottom, while the stock of ETH exchanges is still high, with more chips waiting at the door for the exit. So the current volatility looks small, but the crisis is not over.

This is just short-term holding, but the long-term holding of BTCs and ETHs is likely to be driven out of the market if there is a large downside forecast, and the bottoming out is not, at least in time, the worst-case scenario. Third-quarter earnings reports, or rather the CPI that will be released on Thursday, are already an important determinant of risk markets in the near term. But expectations are not rosy.

This is just September's CPI data, and the average oil price in September was nearly $10 lower than October's, which means that the contribution of CPI increased by 0.8%, (for every $10 oil price reduction, CPI decreased by 0.4%, and the increase of $10 was not just a 0.4% increase, but the 0.4% increase that would have been reduced and the 0.4% increase that would have been caused). Similarly, in September, there could have been a downward trend in rent.

In the case of natural disasters and the lack of hope to buy sublet housing, rents have not shown a significant downward trend, and rents are currently one of the main reasons for the impact of the broad CPI and core CPI, in addition to non-farm data can also be seen, basically the impact on CPI is expanding recruitment, and there has been a slight increase in wages, and these costs will inevitably be added to the user's bill, and increase the share of inflation. It can be argued that US inflation is unlikely to fall significantly until the job market is shut down. Of course, this is what the US Federal Reserve wants to see. After all, many inflation is now caused by supply chains, but there is nothing the US Federal Reserve can do. What is ridiculous is that not only the US Federal Reserve, but even the White House has been unable to do anything about high oil prices. In particular, the President went to Saudi Arabia to find a minimal reduction, and then unilaterally tore it up. It is also hard to control inflation effectively at a time when oil prices are falling because of subsidies to liberalize the Fed's belt, Democrats are buying votes for the midterm elections and escalating geopolitical tensions. So the fundamental question now is whether the Fed is really battling inflation. If so, the October 13 CPI is not the end, and it may well be the start of the second half The Fed's big boys, of course, are not fools. They know the current state of the US economy and have been anchoring employment, but they also know that continued strong employment means that inflation has little chance of coming under control unless supply-side problems are solved. Only if more people lose their jobs, the economy slows, and more business failures can reduce inflation from the purchasing side at the expense of the economy. It's already obvious.

In any case, let's focus on the 13th CPI. After all, this is the best part to show the Fed's attitude. But unless the data are much better than expected, the rate hike in early November will still be at 75 basis points. Moreover, the last one remaining is likely to be the largest as long as inflation does not rise by 50 basis points. This will be of great help to the Democratic Party in the mid-term elections.

The trend of the dollar index, in particular, so far appears that the market is already expecting a 75 basis point increase in interest rates in November. Although it has not broken through to the previous high, it is still wandering around 112. After all, it has only been two days, and as long as CPI is not lower than expected, it is not impossible for the dollar index to reach a new high. Another cut could be the time for the eurozone to raise interest rates, probably by the end of October, but then the Fed.

It's U.S. Treasuries that have been hurt the most by the soaring dollar index, with short-term yields now generally above 3%. Even China's R1R2 struggle to deliver even that level of return with a year in the mid-to-long term averaging around 2.2%. While mid-to-long-term U.S. Treasury yields have averaged 4.2%, almost beating the mainstream DeFi yield, there is still a lot of U.S. money sloshing out of U.S. debt because of recession fears.

It's U.S. Treasuries that have been hurt the most by the soaring dollar index, with short-term yields now generally above 3%. Even China's R1R2 struggle to deliver even that level of return with a year in the mid-to-long term averaging around 2.2%. While mid-to-long-term U.S. Treasury yields have averaged 4.2%, almost beating the mainstream DeFi yield, there is still a lot of U.S. money sloshing out of U.S. debt because of recession fears.

After days of rising market value, USDT, the main trading force, has also fallen into a stagnant state. Similarly, BUSD, the second largest trading force, has both entered into a phase of rising. This also represents a trend of European and Asian funds staying a more cautious wait-and-see until the market changes. However, in practical terms, it is not funds that are in short supply in the currency, although more external funds can drive a stronger buying atmosphere. But the stablecoin is still large enough to pull the top 10 Token back to 2021 highs, not least because it is emotionally awaiting the bottom up, and not before. DAI, as the physical leverage of ETH, continued to reduce its holding as expected, which means that more ETH holders are not optimistic about the future market.

So what you can see from today's stablecoin market value is that just after the moderate trend started, with the opening of U.S. stocks and the weakening of sentiment, the four major stablecoins experienced a further downward trend, reducing their holdings by more than $21 million, although not by much. And USDC, which represents dollars, remains the main culprit. It also represents a sustained flight of US capital from the currency markets, without any apparent relief.

But the steady decline in the market value of the stablecoin has not had much effect on the shift in purchasing power. The USDT data, the main source of current purchases, as of 8 a.m. this morning show a big increase indeed, but only relative to the increase over the weekend. Even compared with the other working days last week, this is at a relatively low level. Judging from the trend of the past half year, purchasing power is still declining.

Although the price has a downward trend, but the BTC and ETH to the exchange of selling pressure has not increased, but need to be noted that the CPI data will soon be published, there will be some short-term buying chips will be inevitably, even in a loss state will still be transferred to the exchange, is in order to if the unexpected situation can be timely exit, which also means that price fluctuations may also have a larger change.

In the same time from the exchange to reflect the data, the overall amount of cash withdrawals is not low, especially the amount of cash withdrawals have increased again, even if there is a large selling pressure is perfect coverage, this shows that the mood of BTC purchases is still good. ETH, on the other hand, has some decent cash withdrawals, but they are still not strong enough. That leaves some of the chips stuck in the exchanges.

Despite the downward trend in BTC prices, the long-held BTC prices have not shown signs of falling, but have continued to rise. Even the share of total liquidity has broken through an all-time high of 71.77%, which means that even in the face of continued aggressive interest-rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve, long-held BTC prices remain frozen, completely out of the process of changing hands, most likely in the midst of a major cyclical downturn.

Emotionally, the BTC and the ETH are still in opposite directions, facing a downward range. Because the BTC has long been in that position, and has not fallen below a new low, many investors believe that it will not fall this time, but that it is more bullish. But, after all, relative to the ETH, which was once at its low, current prices leave investors feeling that there is room to fall, and therefore more bearish.

In fact from the position address profit-loss ratio can be very clear, compared to the BTC profitability, ETH's profitability is lower, so the BTC may face relatively large selling pressure, and it seems likely that many of the ETH profitability chips have long been out of the market, the current profit address percentage is still lower than the BTC's nearly 3%, so from the data, when the extreme situation occurs, BTC may have more trouble. All told, the BTC and ETH are still highly influenced by the Nasdaq, and have been unable to break out of the independent market for a while, especially in the face of the upcoming September CPI, which does not preclude further price declines unless the CPI data are higher than expected and users are fully prepared to accept the Fed's 75 basis point rate hike. The rest is up to the Europeans