The price distribution of BTC positions as of 10am this morning has changed from 22pm last night to 12 hours ago. Intuitively, the number of BTCs added in the US-Europe time zone rose to nearly 85,000, with the main selling pressure still coming from current disputed prices. More short-term chips are changing hands than they were yesterday. The overall loss-making chips, which have been holding positions for more than half a year, and the high-value hedged BTCs have remained largely unchanged. The total loss-making chips, which have been holding positions for more than a month at prices above USD 25,000, have declined by about 1,950 BTCs, an average of 162 per hour, all in very normal weekend data. This means that mid- to long-term positions have been laundered in a way that is almost blind to short-term BTC prices. This is also reflected in the growing number of changes in leverage that are more closely surrounding current disputed prices and the diminishing patience of short-term holders, especially at a time when risk markets are in the run-up to macro-mood changes. It is obvious from the data that more of the outlier is still in the BTC, which bought a low price in the last two days, especially over the weekend, which itself was volatile, more influenced by sentiment, and there are less than 64 hours left before the data on interest rate hikes are released.
After all, many good traders think it's foolish to hold positions that only do cyclical changes. Only contracts and wavebands can get bigger profits. But after all, it's too difficult to be good. Even many people often fail to pass the exam. Therefore, for more ordinary people, it's more stable to earn cyclical profits. So we can see that long-held BTC has been at a high level for nearly a year.
In fact, long-term holders are not all bargain-hunters. Judging from the current data, the current wave of long-term holding chips has increased by more than 300,000 BTCs in the past two months, starting from July 22, 2022. Meanwhile, the cost prices are generally above $40,000, which means that more than half of the total is now being lost. And even more important is the data from 2022, even at the bottom of the long-term holding pile. The number of BTC holders is not lower than 13 million, from a low of 11 million at the end of nearly four years, dating back to May 2021. Sixteen months later, more than 2.5 million additional BTCs have accumulated, meaning that the more expensive BTCs have not moved on, but have remained in long-term possession. It's not that they're all right. It's just that holding after buying can produce fewer losses than frequent trading over the big historical periods relative to more investors. The biggest risk is that the historical cycle will repeat itself, and that is true. As things stand, Thursday's rate increase is a bearish call for more risk-market investors. After all, inflation has not been tamed so far, the Labor Department's September rate hike, from 50 basis points to 75 basis points, is already pretty much in line with the market. And, compared to 100 basis points, the Fed's choice is still more likely at 75, making it highly likely that it will live up to expectations. And there's enough expectation for a 75 basis point increase, which we've been saying for a long time, and the market isn't looking at how much it will raise in September, it's looking at the rest of the two months together, and of course 100% certainty data is hard to gage, and the Fed will have to adjust to jobs and inflation numbers, but the forward-looking end-of-year rates are still coming in, and that's what's at stake before the mid-term elections.
The overall volume of money in the currency market represents investors' confidence to be ready to buy into the market. Judging from the recent data, as expected by the Federal Reserve, indeed, more money is leaving the market. As can be seen from the data up to 8:00 this morning, the market value of USDT has continued to be at the basic level, with only a slight increase of several thousand US dollars. This shows that investors in Europe and Asia are still keeping a wait-and-see mood, and there is no more sign of buying into the market.
USDC continued to defy gravity, even after two days on the weekends. Over the course of a single weekend, the total value of its holdings fell by about $120 million, as U.S. investors withdrew their money from the currency market. USDC almost wiped out the market value added by USDT's shorting. And BUSD, the bulk of this increase, has not budged at all over the past weekend, with growth appearing to have hit a bottleneck.
The market value of DAI fluctuated slightly because of the change in the ETH price, and over the weekend it increased by more than $50 million, rather than diminishing. In terms of the overall stable currency situation, the market value is in a continuous decline, which also represents the wait-and-see situation of outside investors, the lack of confidence in the capital in the market, and the most important is the macro-emotional uncertainty.
Don't say the capital flight of the risk market, that is, the U.S. government bonds which are the mainstay of the U.S. economy, are showing signs of a large amount of capital leaving the market, and from the purchasing power point of view, the lack of capital is the main reason for the current price to drop significantly. After all, for the European and American markets, it is still in the state of the weekend, and it is still a non-trading time zone. It is obvious that both USDT and USDC are at the low point of nearly half a year, and the market buying sentiment is getting worse and worse.
The decline of buying power and buying sentiment led to the lack of energy of the buyer's market, and selling pressure determines the attitude of the seller's market. From the data up to 8:00 this morning, we can see that the BTC selling pressure is in a downward trend, and fewer chips are sold into the market, so the price stability is higher. ETH's selling pressure is increasing, which means that more investors are not optimistic about the future.
BTC and ETH are opposite in exchange chips. Although the purchasing power is low, the BTC is still more than the selling pressure, which reduces the impact of selling pressure on the market and restrains the decline of prices obviously. ETH, due to the restrictions of funds and sentiment, leads to the shortage of BTC and ETH. More chips remain in the exchange and have a great negative effect on prices.
Looking back to the stock exchange, we can also clearly see that BTC itself is in the bottom range of the stock, and the stock is still in the downward trend of volatility, which means that the decline of BTC is limited, while the stock of ETH is still relatively high in nearly half a year, and from the data of 8 a.m., there is still a small increase in the trend, which is extremely unfavorable to the price trend of ETH, and the risk is high.
The number of ETH verifiers after the completion of the merger continues to increase, representing the lock in the number of ETH is also rising, and the curve after the merger has a significant upward trend, indicating that there are more new verifiers generated every day, from the current median, more verifiers are entering the dilution of the yield, but still can be maintained at about 4.8% of the annualized currency.
And this is not calculated in the case of blocks, as in the POW mining period, if the "node" of the verification has block data will be rewarded higher, but for the verifier of ETH, there is still the cost of both hardware and software, on the one hand is the cost of the server hardware, on the other hand is the need to pledge 32 ETH soft costs, but believe that with more POS data published better third-party services will also appear.
On the emotional side, both the BTC and the ETH are more bearish now, because of the fall in prices and the impending interest-rate hike. But for now, the bearish view is not so wide. The ETH, in particular, is more rational now. That depends on what happens on Thursday, and a 75 basis point increase is already expected, not necessarily leading to much price volatility. The emphasis is also on the terminal interest rate
