The mood is still too fragile. During the day yesterday, the index futures were up and opened higher. But following King Huynh Bullard's speech, US stocks repeated the high opening with a series of issues related to the geopolitical conflict. The end of the referendum in four regions of Ukraine indicates that instead of a cease-fire, the conflict between Ukraine and Russia has become more tense. It is not expected to end anytime soon, which also represents a crisis in the supply chain that cannot be resolved.
The Nord Stream leak has added to the woes of Europeans already afflicted by inflation and energy shortages, with natural gas prices soaring 19% in no time. It's not just a winter for risk markets, it's already a physical winter. With dollar indices continuing to rally, the euro has fallen below its lowest level since June 2002 and is unlikely to be reversed before the eurozone raises interest rates in October. It should also be noted that recent days have been a busy time for the Federal Reserve. Several members of the FOMC Committee spoke very hawkish, but Kashkari's speech at 1 a.m. this morning revealed the risk of excessive tightening, but also that Kashkari shows that the current policy of raising interest rates still needs to keep up with inflation. So even the more dovish comments did not provide a modicum of relief. With just three days to go until the end of September, the two oils that had been expected to fall have also rebounded, largely because Russia's decision to cut production, under three demands, by OPEC+, is likely. While the cut is small, it has put the declining trend on hold, and the United States itself has shut down some of its oil and gas production in the Gulf of Mexico, driving up prices even higher.
Yesterday evening's tweet also described the current downward trend in housing prices. After consulting with some small partners in the United States, it was found that the trend of rent reduction is still not on track, and the rental rate as a share of CPI and core CPI is also very high. Therefore, judging from the current situation, the generalized CPI in September can indeed be lowered, but the lowering of core CPI may be difficult, and this will also lead the Federal Reserve to continue to strengthen interest rate hikes. The bottom of the risk markets is not necessarily now. The other thing to watch out for is that the end of September represents the end of the third quarter, and today GDPNow releases its latest U.S. G.D.P. figure for the third quarter, which is interesting because while the number is still .3%, it's rounded off, and the graph shows a slight upward trend in G.D.P. That may be the best outcome for the Fed. stopping rapid growth without triggering a general recession. I thought of a dispatch from the White House today saying that the U.S. Congress will pass an interim government funding bill this Friday, but I don't know where it's going to help, and I don't know if it's going to add to the nation's deficit, because senior people at Moody's Analytics have said publicly that Biden's budget deficit, over and above all, rose during his presidency. Another more sensitive issue is US Treasury bonds. At 1 a.m. this morning, the US Treasury Department auctioned $44 billion in five-year bonds at a bid rate of 4.228%, or 1% a month apart. Even so, there are still signs that large amounts of money are continuing to leave U.S. debt, illustrating that investors remain downbeat about the U.S. economy and risk markets will find it harder to rally.
And for capital flight, it's not just in the U.S. bond market, the market value of the stablecoin in the money circle continues to decline with the continued weakness of the USDC. As of 8:00 this morning, the market value of the USDC has again dropped by 180 million US dollars, but the market value of the stablecoin has increased by 190 million US dollars, representing that even though American investors have withdrawn from the currency market, more capital is beginning to come into the market. But, in the long run, the currency market, which lost American investors, is likely to decouple from the NASDAQ, which is highly overlapping, and it is difficult to tell whether this is a good thing or a bad thing.
For USDT and BUSD, which were at the heart of the deal at the same time, the USDT still posted a modest increase of about $1 million, which is also interesting, because we already know that Europe and Asia, especially Europe, have the highest rates of USDT use, and Europe is now even hotter than the United States, not only facing high inflation and interest rate hikes, but also suffering from the weaker stock and bond markets in Europe. But it is in this case that Europeans continue to display extremely strong emotions about the currency market, or the purchasing power of the BTC and the ETH, which would have been lost without the injection of European money if US investors had been sharply curtailed.
For BUSD, after nearly two weeks of immersion, there was a sudden $370 million increase, not only directly offset the decline in USDC's market value, but also led to the overall stable currency's market value increase. Although it is difficult to determine the location of the users of funds, but as the second leading force of the deal, BUSD, more off-market money into the market will inevitably increase the probability of purchasing power.
DAI as a measure of the ETH spot lever, still not much change, as the de-centralization of the stability of the number one, DAI more as a bridge between the use of the equivalent of the ETH monetization. So, overall stablecoin value is still down, but the current stock is still large enough to push the currency market to its peak in 2021, so USDC's selling is not large enough to slow the rally.
What matters is the Fed's monetary policy. However, in terms of purchasing power, the amount of capital transferred to the Exchange by USDT, which was the main force of trading, increased slightly compared to that of yesterday. This shows that lower prices have aroused more attention and buying. After all, many investors lost money again due to the one-day "bull-bear switch." USDC continued to be in a downward trend, but low turnover makes the impact small.
Judging from the selling pressure, the sharp increase and decrease in prices has indeed led to more chips being transferred to the exchanges. As of 8 am this morning, the BTC had seen a relatively large increase in selling pressure compared with the previous trading day. Even if we do not compare the data, we can know whether the chips that sold more chips were those that "bought the bottom" yesterday. Either they have already lost money and left the market, or they are waiting for a better price on the exchange. The ETH ejection pressure is in a downward trend.
The corresponding data of withdrawals from exchanges show a completely different situation. Relatively speaking, the BTC's withdrawals did not cover the overall selling pressure. This is also related to the rapid increase and decrease of the BTC. Especially when the BTC is rising at a high speed, the call for a bull run should be accompanied by a lot of small partners buying at a high level. ETH, because of relatively low price fluctuations, the higher stock caused by the withdrawal can cover the selling pressure.
From the stock of exchanges, it is also clear that the stock of BTC indeed appeared to increase, so the stock of 2.4 million BTC exchanges has been fighting for a long time, now seems to have formed a strong sense of glue. ETH's inventory is declining, but there is a higher risk of early overbuilding than BTC's, which still exceeds the LUNA sell-off. In addition, from the long-term holding of the BTC trend, although in a week there were two consecutive BTC price exceeded 20,000 US dollars and then swung back under 19,000 US dollars, but it can be clearly seen that the long-term holder of the BTC not only did not participate in the exchange of hands, but also in a rising trend, meaning that more chips are not interested in the current price at all, and frequent exchange of hands in the opposite is more short-term chips. It must be said here that before the macro sentiment changes, the current BTC and ETH have not yet stepped out of the shadow of the September interest rate hike. The short-term price hike cannot rule out that some push is needed. For example, option delivery at the end of the month. Interested parties can look at the historical price trend, and almost all of them will see relatively large price fluctuations from Monday to Wednesday of the delivery week. If they fall below the maximum pain point, they will almost all pull. Anything above that would almost fall apart, especially if Monday's data were even more pronounced. Flip through the calendar and see how prices are moving. The warning was in place over the weekend, but I'm guessing too few chaps were paying attention. From the stabilization currency's market value to macro sentiment to the waning purchasing power, there is a long way to go before a "bull turn" is realized. It is more important to determine whether this is a bottom range via the direction of the CPI.
From the BTC and ETH's sentiment, in the morning when the currency price falls, BTC and ETH made a completely different reaction, when the price is falling, the BTC's bullish sentiment is even stronger, but the ETH is completely opposite, the lower the price is, the more concentrated and the more widespread bearish. And it is hard to tell where prices are going, and it is easy to see why users are pessimistic.
To sum up, although US stocks fell sharply early this morning, the Nasdaq futures ended their five-day losing streak and rose slightly before the close of trading. However, after-hours Nasdaq futures fell sharply at 9 a.m. due to the short-term profit created by Apple's production cuts. This brought BTC and ETH closer to the relative bottom yet again. However, barring skilled short-term traders who are not planning to hold money for the medium and long term, prudent buying should it be.
