The price distribution of BTC positions as of 10:00 a.m. this morning has changed from 12:00 p.m. yesterday to 22 hours today. Although the data were obtained at somewhat longer intervals, it is also clear that as prices have gyrated downward, the stakes in circulation have increased considerably, although more selling pressure is still under dispute. Yesterday's record high of $19,000 was also marked down today. From the profitable chips that have been in the market for more than six months and BTC's high-value carry, 937 of these chips have dropped during this period, with an average of about 42 BTC's dropping every hour. That's normal weekend data. Overall loss-making chips with holdings of more than a month and above $25,000 lost a total of 2,016, or less than 92 BTCs an hour, which is normal weekend data.
So it is clear that even with some volatility in prices, BTC is in near-oblivion for longer-term holdings, while short-term chips remain the mainstay of turnover. While selling pressure of $19,000 has tended to reduce, the current stock of that price range remains the highest of any single price. This means that a sudden emotional collapse among short-term holders could have a big impact on prices.
Of course, the main reason that affects the mood now is that on the issue of the Fed raising interest rates, after opening at 6 a.m. this morning, NASDAQ futures have been in a state of decline. Although they have stabilized now, they are still showing a bottom-swings. This shows that despite a weekend of adjustment, investors still have not overcome the shadows of the Fed raising interest rates in September and the unfavorable CPI forecast for October. And the open Nasdaq futures were at their lowest in nearly two years. The price trend shows that BTC and ETH are still influenced by the futures of the Nasdaq. Although the decline of the Nasdaq in the previous week did not affect BTC and ETH much, it is not known whether this week will continue. But if broader macro sentiment continues to fail to stabilize, such as the trickle of guidance that is coming out of the market, it must also be affected for currency markets.
Compared with unstable short-term holding BTC, long-term holding of chips represents the control of the current market circulation, and the gradual decline of circulation, although for the short-term suppression of market agitation is not significant, but for the long-term control of price has played a very key role, only long-term holding of chips do not participate in changing hands, and maintain the accumulation, then the circulation in the market will inevitably dry up.
In terms of ETH data, the situation is similar to BTC. Although the price is in a downward state, but the chips in the POS are still increasing, although they only increased by 0.01%. However, in the face of the unknown cash withdrawal cycle, it is already good data, indicating that many investors are more optimistic about the long-term trend of ETH. It helps to reduce the amount of circulation on the market.
The stability of the market value is the most important data for the overall currency market besides the macro sentiment, because the upper limit of the market value determines the maximum purchasing power. As of 8am today, USDT's market capitalization is still down from yesterday's, but the reduction has shrunk to only about $70,000, hardly a figure for USDT today. It also illustrates the relative stability of investor sentiment in Europe and Asia.
As for BUSD, the second largest trading leader after USDT, there has been no movement in market value for five days in a row, especially since the market value of USDC has shrunk a lot in the last few days. However, judging from the data of USDC today, the difficult phenomenon appears not to continue to decrease, but to increase slightly. Although the overall market value has increased by less than $8 million. USDC's reduction is most likely related to US monetary policy.
Another stablecoin, DAI, linked to the ETH spot leverage, has also seen its market value drop in the recent past, with the DAI losing nearly $12 million as of 8 a.m. this morning, indicating that more ETH holders are not optimistic about the aftermarket. Instead, the four major stablecoins have seen the largest losses. So today's dominant stablecoin is still in decline, losing about $5 million, a relatively small amount of change. Because it is still in the European and American weekends, the purchasing power of money, the selling pressure of exchanges and the withdrawal data are at the weekend's low liquidity level, and I've looked at them all, there are no special cases, so I'm not analyzing them deliberately. Instead, BTC and ETH's stock of trades can be seen.
First is the BTC stock data, although it is the weekend and purchasing power is not high, but the mood of buying is still good, in the case of low selling pressure, purchasing power covers the entire selling pressure, so that more chips in the stock from the exchange cash out of the market. The second is the ETH data. Since 29th, ETH has ended the trend of a large number of departure, returned to the accumulation state, and the stock is still high.
This is also because of the weekend, the overall selling pressure and cash figures are low, so you need to look at the working day data to determine. For the current BTC and ETH, the greater impact on prices will come from the release of CPI data in ten days' time. In particular, current projections suggest that the broad CPI will fall by only 0.1%, while the core CPI will rise by 0.34%.
From this data, because the broad CPI differential is so small that it does not even rule out an increase, a 75-basis-point rate hike would be the best possible outcome if the Fed were to choose between inflation stalemates. While the 50 basis point increase in interest rates is now more likely than not based on the CME's current forecasts, the Fed's independence will depend on whether it is what Powell assures it in the face of higher inflation and the upcoming midterm election.
Judging from the current trend of the Nasdaq futures, although they hit a new two-year low today, they have gradually rebounded. The key still lies in whether Europeans will drive the market higher after 15 p.m., or else the Nasdaq will probably hit new lows even after the U.S. stock markets open in the evening. And BT and ETH are bound to continue their downward trend even if the shock is small. After all, it's still very close to the Finger. PS: My Youtube channel is live and will now be updated as a supplement to the text version. We hope that you will have a better understanding of macro and data changes. Interested parties can check it out and thank you for your support.
