"Investor sentiment around Dogecoin is at its most negative level in over a year", reported analyst.

In simple words, discussions about Doge have taken a pessimistic turn and social media mentions are low, about 15x times lower than November-December 2024, when dramatic spikes were seen, correlating with the price rally. The current dip suggest that market participants are overwhelmingly bearish.

Fear and Greed Index shows neutral, but meme-coins (in general) are loosing traction/ people's interest and the whole market is at a moment of high fear.

Then, why bother?

Well, there are some things you should know first. Let's go back more than a century to William P. Hamilton (Dow's understudy and editor of the Wall Street Journal). Hamilton's interpretation of the Dow Theory forms the basis of all modern technical analysis (TA) today. One of his main contributions to the theory was the idea that the market primary trend cannot be manipulated. I'll explain.

When large amounts of money are at stake, the temptation to manipulate is bound to be present. Intraday, day-to-day, even secondary movements could be prone to manipulation. Simply put, short movements, lasting hours to a few weeks could be subject to manipulation by large institutions, speculators, breaking news, or rumors. Not the PRIMARY trend. When manipulation like this was discovered, long-term trends always prevailed after about a month. A primary trend doesn't end until proven otherwise and can last for months or years. So, don't jump so easily into thinking bearish trend is already here.

Dogecoin has dropped 20% in a week, but despite the pullback, whale addresses reportedly scooped up 1.7 billion DOGE (approximately $298 million) in just three days, suggesting that bigger players might be positioning for a rebound.

You see, secondary movements (which go against the primary trend), due to their complexity and deceptive nature, are often mistaken for the start of a new primary trend. In a bull market, a secondary movement is called a correction, and is necessary to combat excessive speculation.

Hamilton also said everything there is to know is already reflected in the markets through price. Interest rate movements, revenue projections, presidential elections, product initiatives, and EVERYTHING else are already priced in by the market. This also means it is very hard to read.

That being said, TA suggest Dogecoin appears to be oversold at this point and some analysts see this period as the last opportunity for investors to acquire the meme coin at relatively low prices. There's a resistance near $0.28 (a place difficult for the price to rise beyond this point) and an upper boundary around $0.47–$0.48 that marks a major swing high from previous rallies.

This doesn't need to be immediate, however. The price could seek Fibonacci levels (I'll explain this in another post) near $0.1157, $0.1092, $0.097, and deeper less likely levels. The smartest thing to do would be to set up robots to automate your trading, and I'll dedicate an entire tutorial to this later.

Be cautious, don't invest money that's essential for your survival; remember that every expert has their opinion and, as Hamilton himself argues, theory is not infallible. If it were, speculation as we know it will not exist.

I have used articles available on the Web Archive and Wikipedia to compile the information presented here. Please support my work by simply hitting "Tip" down below.