After reaching all-time highs, Bitcoin plummeted to nearly $100,000.
On Friday, October 10, the cryptocurrency market experienced an earthquake. Bitcoin (BTC) plummeted from $122,000 to as low as $103,000 amid rising trade tensions between the United States and China. Shortly after, the price rebounded to $110,000, but the impact left lasting effects.
Some analysts point to coordinated movements in large futures positions, suggesting signs of market manipulation amid the widespread panic.
The episode coincided with exchanges between the two economic powers about new tariffs and possible retaliation. The uncertainty spilled over into the major stock indices, which registered massive sell-offs. In parallel, the cryptocurrency market liquidated nearly $19.4 billion in futures contracts.
All of this raises questions: Is Uptober canceled for Bitcoin? Will this be a new exception in BTC's history of positive returns in the tenth month of the year?
Before continuing, it's important to define "uptober." This word is a combination of "up" and "October," and it's assigned to the tenth month of each year because it has historically been positive for BTC. This month generally yields an average of 20% returns, typically being a green month for the market.
Uptober is over
Emanuel Juárez, an Argentine technical analyst, is blunt: "I do believe that, for the moment, Bitcoin's uptober has been canceled." He explains that the current month has become one of high volatility, driven by the escalating trade conflict.
Juárez indicates that Bitcoin's performance this month has not been like that of a safe haven, unlike gold. In his opinion, "this shows that Bitcoin has not yet fully consolidated its position as a safe haven."
"Its performance remains linked to general market sentiment and global liquidity levels," he adds.
His words gain resonance when considering that the market crash on Friday, October 10, had no impact on the price of gold. In fact, the precious metal opened this week at all-time highs, trading above USD 4,100 for the first time.
From a technical perspective, Juárez maintains that Bitcoin's recent decline has altered part of the previous bullish structure. Therefore, he believes that if the asset price fails to break above $124,180, "the likelihood of a downward continuation remains high, with an initial target around $97,500."
"Any rebound in the coming days could simply be a correction within that downward trend," Juárez continued, adding that the current situation of the US government shutdown and the resulting lack of macroeconomic data that the Federal Reserve will face due to this situation add to the market's uncertainty.
He believes that while an interest rate cut in the US is expected later this month, which could benefit Bitcoin, "in the current context it could have a mixed effect: temporarily easing the pressure, but also reflecting a weaker economic environment," he warned.
"A rate cut could generate temporary relief, but not necessarily a sustained boost if investors perceive a deeper economic deterioration." He explained.
An uncertain October
With the main technical indicators showing mixed signals, the Bitcoin market faces an uncertain outlook.
Thus, the performance of the coming days will be influenced by macroeconomic news and the tone adopted by the Federal Reserve at its next meeting.
In any case, bearish sentiment is already taking hold in the market, and everything seems to indicate that the highs have already been reached.
