I have my Prediction Hat on for this one. It has a really good antenna! :)
OK, for the BTC maximalists, the "et al" part in the post title is something they don't want to hear,
Given the BTC mantra "There can only be One".
That said, there is
Lightning? What Lightning? When will the BTC Lightning Network be in Widespread Consumer Retail Use?
BTC is perilously close to dropping below the bottom of the BTC lower boundary "band of dominance" these days (63%), meaning the existing, always transforming and improving "alt" coin, token and now inter-blockchain and auto-balancers ARE the 'new' added value leaders in the crypto market, rapidly gaining ground on both BTC and ETH, daily, in terms of followers, $ volume traded and market valuation.
(Stable Coins are important too, but really are temporary stores of hard value, no?)
The ETH 'Flippening' out?:" We didn't get what we want!". Likely by 2022.
Is the ETH crowd Flippening Out for the chance of 50% Crypto Market Dominance waning?
Will it be the ETH "Flippening" happen? IMO "partly YES", in the shorter term, as BTC dives below 50% dominance, my prediction, by 2022.
Does this mean the ETH (largely ERC20) Ecosystem of (Solidity Scripted) Smart Contract Value-Add Crypto Solutions will have achieved 50% Market Dominance in 2022?
Not likely by any stretch.
The ETH crowd's biggest challenge imo, will be keeping their developer base from 'bolting' to other projects which in fact, are delivering the really challenging parts of crypto, the ones that need to be in place in order for crypto solutions to operate @scale to attract a lot of use. Groups like #Cardano & #TEZOS and to some extent #TRON are getting 'it' done, right now. (#EOS too, as are most in the #POS or #dPOS part of the crypto market (while their Smart Contract efforts lurch ahead at various rates), but I digress)
Do we care that #ETH might be "missing the boat"?
Not really,as the use of #Crypto will expand at least three fold in that time and crest US $ 1 Trillion Market Cap for the first time by end of 2022.
The ETH Community, striving for a bigger piece of the crypto market pie, always.
In the medium (1 year )and long(3 Years) terms, the ETH camp will more likely be experiencing a different type of "flippening" sentiment with in their ranks in a much bigger, "eroding of the developer base" way. I expect to see some of their 'legion' of (once loyal) developers defect to other camps (everyone needs a pay check as it's hard to live on ETH Kumbuya). Defections will find new homes, crypto solutions which aren't ERC20 compliant, which actually nicely solve the TPS and Wide Spread Retail Use 'Challenges' delivered by others TODAY.
The competing ETH (#ERC20) solutions are already "shored up" with different Smart Contract based SDK dev tools sporting similar scripting languages and, and have the advantage of building with POS & dPOS to deliver settlement speed and high TPS numbers every block generation cycle. The foundation for successful competing crypto solutions are their rapidly emerging services and Dapps, which generally have learned from the mistakes of the ETH community and, as a result are somewhat easier to use and implement by the masses.
The ETH community has shown the others the way. Notably ETH co-founder Hoskinson had the "gnads" to "jump ship" back in 2015, and start over again at CARDANO , a pure dPOS + SC play now solidly in the TOP 10 at position 8, recently passing the dimming early POS star of EOS.
Moving forward into 2022 I also expect the alpha members of the "herd" to become new graduates with a deeper level of understanding in crypto and, actually realize the need for "hard store of value" inflation proof money available to everyone at scale (with speed).
imo, the ETH camp will get over their "NIH" Not invented Here superiority complex and, in order to survive more rapidly adopt and integrate the open source of other crypto camps openly (Oh the horror, not)
Enter the Constitutional Gold Backed US dollar July 4th, 2020?: 'Digitized' on the US Treasury Debit Card Issue?
Will the US Republic Return to a US Treasury Issued, Gold Backed Dollar by 2021, this time fully digitized, maybe on 'Blockchain'?
Let's call the above the USR $ for short, since such a US Treasury issue is a US govt return to the original US republic roots and constitutional law.
(Shedding all the democratic socialist layers (some say Marxist today) and practices of the US govt since fiat was first issued in 1971)
Will the USR $ intro mean a three way dominance split between the upcoming USR $, BTC and ETH ?
My spidey sense says partly for the first cycle (till 2022), as the Alt Crypto crowd also adjusts, absolutely more quickly, to grab as much as 40% of the rapidly growing "inflation proof part of the pie" by 2024.
(It's a big guesstimate speculating the Big WHAT IF. What the heck, someone has to address the "Elephant in the room.")
How fast the "inflation proof" Crypto part of the World Money Supply Pie will grow in value, relative to the gigantic FIAT Money supply out there, ( likely soon, to massively shrink, in terms of relative buying power of the fiat portion of the pie ), well that is anyone's guess.
Shitcoin Cleanup Continues well into 2021? Yes...
What is certain imo, is there will be an even faster purge of the "Shitcoin Zombie" ICO ripoffs of 2017 heading into 2021 after the US Election is complete. These early late 2017 "con jobs" are largely still festering around the edges of the the current Crypto Market, way down in terms of trading volume with seriously collapsed, unlikely to recover Market caps.
For those boutique value-add alt coin and token plays that have attracted serious investor use and developer interest, I expect a lot more tech M&A activity in the Crypto as well, mainly in the form of more open source collaboration and 'sharing' or integrations (facilitated with rapidly improving SDKs) to quickly build inter-blockchain settlement capabilities among many different solutions, where there will be other competitors to #CHAINLINK and #COSMOS rapidly emerge to 'take up the slack' in market demand for such 'inter-blockchain' settlement capabilities, as the bulwark of crypto blockchain networking increases in size and complexity to deal with that rising demand.
It will be interesting to see how quickly the 'inter-blockchain" segment of the crypto market increases in use and number of players adapting to this new crypto market reality, especially 'In the face' of a likely USR $ introduction in 2021. By 2022 or latest 2023 there could be 1000+ alt-coins/tokens with real value left standing after the purge, most all of them inter-connected as it applies to 'cross-blockchain(distributed permissionless ledgers private and public) settlement, which imo, will be a mighty challenge to anything the US govt can dream up to retain some semblance of control over the way the World Money Supply works in the form of a digitized US currency which is gold backed. (Cuz right now the fiat World Monetary System doesn't work 'for the many' and, that has got to change.)
Interesting times ahead, indeed!
USR $ Intro: US Govt Fumbles the Ball, and gets Creamed..., quite possibly..
The other likely dynamic (one I don't condone or recommend) is the US govt, for the USR $, employs a reserve percent to inflate/deflate the amount of the value shown as paper and digital USR$ versus the actual gold amount the govt has on hand, to "empower' the US govt with the economic stimulus tool and partial control over their state money supply they say they need. IMO, It would be a dumb move and frankly, one I expect, but maybe 'they' surprise me.
Such a move would see the #USR$ compete as a centrally controlled medium of exchange with unpredictable inflation/deflation versus the BTC, ETH and rapidly growing ALT composite medium of exchange with built in "inflation" protection (governed only by the crypto market implosion as 'shitcoins are shed' (abandoned projects going no where with value add delivery, therefore flat-lined to almost zero market cap value) or portions thereof with worthy tech are merged and integrated).
Smart investors will figure out the form of the USR $ and likely outcome in 'a heart beat or two' and, if the form the USR $ takes truly is central with govt manipulated inflation and deflation, stay away from the USR $ as a store of value (hedge) causing the value of the USR$ to decline, which means you need more USR $ to buy the same thing you would buy using the "inflation proof" mediums of exchange.
US Govt USR $ Forced Adoption Antics: Likely,
Can the US govt force you into the USR $. Yup, its called forced vaccine must be taken (which is RFI ID nano chipped in your blood stream), so you can travel and expect the US Govt will only accept payment of taxes in USR $ or crap USA Fiat $. It could and is likely to happen.
The next few months of US candidate for president campaign platform disclosure in the US election by both Trump and Biden(maybe) will tell the rest of the world which way the World Monetary System will go, the election outcome tuned by honest polling data (if you can find such data) as opined by the US voting intention at that moment (just before election day and not sooner).
Education of the US masses on the above (how to intro the USR$ properly on what tech), is frankly, unlikely, unless someone with bipartisan appeal in the US actually gets up and talks about it. (I know it's a pipe dream on my part, but its a good one! :) )
Flight from Fiat Accelerates, Smartly in 3Q 2020.
The Flight from Fiat is accelerating driven by Whale Investor and smart small investor migration to crypto.
As always, such investor looks for short, medium and long term value appreciation (more value, easily defended against competitors, as the value-adders build a longer runway and increase the velocity of delivery of their value to an even wider market of users).
This last point is where both BTC and ETH camps are struggling. TIC TOC. (hurry the f--K up will you ;) )
Expanding their value add beyond store of value in the former's case and Smart contracts in the latter case, to include two basic Consumer Needs:
A. Transaction Per Second (tps) increases which compete or surpass current fiat transaction systems, so I don't wait 1 minute or 10 minutes or 2 hours or 2 days for the transaction to be approved...
B. Get wide spread adoption among retailers (so you can actually buy most goods anywhere physically. Amazon no thanks, than you very much for destroying the SMB retail segment and all the jobs that go with it)
In case these two (soon, not to be incumbent) camps have not noticed, #CARDANO, #TEZOS, #STELLAR, #MONERO, #TRON "et al" have not stood still in adding value and have grown as a result within the TOP 15 having Market caps over US $ 1 Billion. (Collectively almost as big as Ethereum's market cap and definitely growing faster, if you include those "big value adders" from the Top 30 as well like #IOTA, #Dash, #Zcash, #COSMOS with #BAT getting and honourable mention just outside the TOP 30 today, etc... )
I leave #EOS out of this "growth list" as their fall from grace is well documented.
The Wild Cards: Inter-blockchain Settlement and Crypto Portfolio Balancers
Inter-blockchain Settlement Exchanges
"ISE"s use their own internal utility tokens to settle transactions between dissimilar 'blockchains' allow the Crypto market to scale heterogeneously (an emerging market fact the BTC Maximalists choose to ignore) AND , are the relative 'newcomers' in the Top 30.
#Chainlink and #COSMOS have added inter-blockchain routing/settlement token solutions which are starting to get actual use given the daily volume growth each are experiencing.
It's not just the ERC20 crowd of alt coins which benefit, its the ecosystems of the a fore mentioned who are also benefiting because both CHAINLINK (CN) and COSMOS (NA) actually built the SDKs to help developers attach and inter-connect these growing Crypto Value-add solutions for hetro-settlement of transactions across disparate distributed public and private permissionless ledgers.
Balancers, which act a lot like sophisticated "mutual" funds, balance the risk among a fixed set of crypto assets, auto magically. tres cool, yet very early days with some early promising signs of end user investor/trader adoption. (More on this on a follow on post)
THE BOOGEY MAN COMETH?:
US Digital Constitutional Dollar Backed by Gold in 2021: What does that mean for Crypto?
If the foretold USR $ does not have a limited quantity and, does not run in a distributed manner, where the govt refuses to release node operation into the wild, to set the world free in one fell swoop, WELL, it means less, to all of us AND would be highly disappointing.
(Big missed opportunity for the supposed leader of the 'free' world)
If the US govt does decide to act positively, using #dPOS to be energy efficient, then a whole new world is born.
Resting on your Laurels, you are? ETH and BTC...
In either of the two USR $ cases proposed, the incumbents, BTC and ETH need to be planning their co-existence for such a likely outcome, and step up the delivery of the two most important "Needs" ASAP: that being TPS and Retail/Service medium of exchange utility.
JFK "Reloaded": Should the US Voter "Take the Bait"?: Man, it sure looks good.., especially to those of us who remember..,
Getty Images Copyright.
Are we missing something?
As the current US president continues to execute the JFK plan "reloaded" (with some waiting for Vincent Fusca to finally reveal he really is John John and actually supporting the current President, if so, expect some shock & awe July 4th, and expect swing voters and disgusted liberal Dems getting in behind the Populist Trump movement with John john in tow),
"Hope Porn" aside, expect the US Treasury, now the de facto manager of the private FED Reserve, to run a 'split bet', that manifests as a "dual money issuance" game (maybe starting as early as July 4th, 2020), which sees the US Treasury directly issuing the USR $ (gold backed) as I label it, to be a companion to the current fiat USA $ Note issued by the privately controlled federal Reserve (Rockefeller and Rothschild Interests et al of the same ilk.)
Remember, despite what the MSM would like you to believe, the USA is a Republic and, will be more so after 2020 (and actually see more and more elected GOP members actually promote and follow the constitution to the letter, leaving the old rump GOP party politic and archaic thinking largely a 'thing' of the past):
(Unless by some miracle the Dem left manages to stuff the ballot boxes another way than write in votes and voter cross-border bussing, this time around, which is not likely, as the GOP are completely on top of this, this time around from what I can tell)
A USR $: The Crime of the Century or a Truly New Beginning?
Hence the USR $ or the 'Constitutional US $ backed by Gold' will signal the big Economic reset of our times and be THE Milestone of this 21 Century.
Hey the Debit cards have already been issued to US citizens: The Treasury does the transfers, right? Next Step, your US treasury debit card has two accounts, old fiat $, AND USR $ backed by gold.
Double Jeopardy: Can't be charged for the same crime twice? It could likely Happen with USR $ Issue, if they try to centrally control it and use a reserve ratio (printing more gold notes than there is gold, as a way to manage inflation up and down disguised as 'stimulus' and 'cooling off" economic policies)
Expect, imo, double pricing to emerge as a result.
ie Do you buy the loaf o bread for fiat US $4.00 (after the inflation is exposed on the Trillions printed almost overnight when the USR $ gets issued)
do you buy the loaf of bread for USR $ 2.00 (and the price of the loaf of bread stays that way for the next five years)
Where the only thing that fluctuates is the grams of gold you will get per the price of gold in USR $ when you exchange that certificate in paper or digital form for the actual grams of gold owed to you?
The Caveats I mention earlier in this post are clear. The current USA administration are in a position to do something great, one time only.
Will the USA govt post 2020 Election do it?
Only time (and maybe Vincent Jusca) will tell. It's what papa wanted which got him killed (likely along w/ alien tech sharing angle w/ RU)
Crypto Investor How to Prepare for the USR $: Buy gold, buy more Silver, and Buy Quality Crypto with "Growing' Value Add
And for goodness sake, reduce your exposure to any type of asset backed by or denominated in fiat currency, anywhere, including all fiat AND US $ DENOMINATED debt INSTRUMENTS.
For now, investors need to "raise their game" and, pay MORE attention to the above while they make more of a shift into gold, silver and quality crypto.
Those investors who hesitate, will lose, BIG time (lots of their buying power will be lost, forever, to sky rocketing inflation, WEIMAR Style) in this "Once in a Century" event, coming your way, post US election day 2020.
Stay safe, especially all my USA friends AND maybe, just maybe, John John is still around AND, as a Good Man, together with President Trump, will usher in a new way of seeing and being in the world, maybe as soon as July 3rd in Oklahoma.
(ok, I like hope porn, I am a positive person, I can't help it... ;) )
(Man, the stuff in this pipe is good!)
From the GWN, TK over and out
TK tip - Watch the Gene Kelly (the man's tap dancer) & Leslie Caron (a truly versatile dancer/ballet star) w/ Troupe Dance up a Storm! (link below)