The Bitcoin market is facing a challenge that threatens its recent bullish run. The inflow of new capital, key to sustaining price momentum, is showing signs of exhaustion.
A report from on-chain data provider CryptoQuant indicates that demand for Bitcoin is weakening, which could push the price to critical support levels. This outlook, combined with a complex macroeconomic context, raises questions about the immediate future of the world's most important digital asset.
Bitcoin demand momentum has fallen to 2 million BTC, the lowest level on record. This indicator reflects a significant decline in the influx of new buyers. Over the past 30 days, spot demand has grown by 118,000 BTC, a modest figure compared to the peak of 228,000 BTC reached on May 27, 2025.
The following chart shows that net demand drives the price of Bitcoin. Periods of strong " positive demand momentum“ (green bars) coincide with significant increases, while "negative demand momentum" (red bars) is associated with declines or stagnation.
Demand for Bitcoin has fallen to record lows. Source: CryptoQuant.
In May 2025, the red bars are the steepest on record, signaling either strong selling pressure or an extreme lack of new buyers, creating an oversupply in the spot market. This cooling in buying activity suggests the market may be entering a slowdown phase.
Meanwhile, whales and ETFs have drastically reduced their purchases. Whale balances are growing by only 1.7% month-over-month, compared to 3.9% at the end of May, CryptoQuant reports.
Likewise, daily ETF purchases in the United States have fallen from 9,700 BTC on April 23 to 3,300 BTC today. This reduced activity from major players reinforces the perception of weakening demand.
Fewer new investors, more selling pressure
New investor participation is also showing a decline. Short-term holders (STH), those who have recently acquired bitcoin, now hold 4.5 million BTC, a drop of 0.8 million from 5.3 million on May 27.
Total supply of bitcoin as a function of its “age” (how long it has been held). Source: CryptoQuant.
This decline in supply in STH hands indicates a lower inflow of fresh capital, a critical factor for sustained price increases, as these typically depend on new investors buying out old holders.
In a typical retail-driven bull market, an increase in this metric can be expected, but current dynamics suggest that price support depends more on long-term holders or institutional demand than on new entrants.
Where is the price of bitcoin going?
CryptoQuant analysts warn that if demand continues to weaken, Bitcoin could find support at $92,000, the level corresponding to traders' on-chain realized price, a common support point in bull markets. If this level fails to hold, the next support level is located around $81,000, CryptoQuant says.
For its part, Swissblock Technologies, a digital asset market analysis firm, displays “ spot volume delta.” This measures the difference between buying and selling volumes in the spot market.
Difference between Bitcoin buying and selling volume. Source: Swissblock Technologies.
The negative bars in June confirm negative net demand, with sales exceeding purchases. This phenomenon aligns with the lower participation of new investors and the decline in short-term supply.
Although the price hasn't collapsed, the resistance is likely due to long-term holders not liquidating their positions en masse, providing temporary support for the price. However, “there's likely to be further downward momentum before we achieve a real breakout,” says Swissblock Technologies.
Macroeconomic factors and bullish outlook for Bitcoin
Despite the warning signs, not everything is doom and gloom. The Bitcoin price is still in a consolidation phase between $100,000 and $110,000. However, the macroeconomic context is not favorable for the asset. Tensions in the Middle East, stemming from the conflict between Israel and Iran, are generating uncertainty in global markets, affecting volatile assets like Bitcoin. However, there are catalysts that could reverse this trend. Federal Reserve Chairman Christopher Waller noted that the organization could cut interest rates in July, given that inflation is no longer a significant threat.
Lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs, encouraging investment in assets like Bitcoin. Currently, the benchmark interest rate in the United States remains between 4.25% and 4.5%, but a cut could trigger a rebound in price. Another bullish factor is growing institutional adoption. More and more companies are considering Bitcoin as a reserve asset, following the example of Michael Saylor, president of Strategy, the public company with the largest holdings of BTC.
For his part, analyst Willy Woo emphasizes that institutional flows into Bitcoin are “extremely fluid,” comparing them to a dollar-cost averaging strategy. Woo projects that if Bitcoin surpasses its all-time highs again, it could quickly reach $118,000.
