On August 1, Binance, the world's largest exchange, recorded a daily spot trading volume of Bitcoin (BTC) that surpassed $7.6 billion, marking one of the most significant increases in weeks.
This data reveals intense activity from institutional investors and whales, investors with more than 1,000 BTC looking to take advantage of a recent drop in the digital currency's price, according to an analysis by on-chain data provider CryptoQuant conducted by trader Amr Taha.
The following chart clearly illustrates this trend. It shows that Binance (represented in yellow at the top of each stacked bar) dominates Bitcoin spot trading volume throughout the period shown. The peak in total volume for all platforms, and Binance in particular, is evident around August 1, where the yellow bar reaches its highest point.
Bitcoin Spot volume by exchange. Source: CryptoQuant.
The increase in volume coincided with a decline in the price of bitcoin, which fell from over $118,000 to around $113,000.
The correction, triggered by President Donald Trump's announcement of new tariffs on U.S. imports, generated high volatility.
However, “historically, such spikes in spot volume, such as the $7 billion surge on June 22 have often been associated with local lows or major pivots in price direction,” CryptoQuant notes.
Whales and institutions in action
The high volume suggests aggressive accumulation. The analyst notes that these spikes in spot trading on Binance are typically driven by institutional investors and whales anticipating a rebound.
“Large spot volume inflows typically indicate aggressive accumulation, often by institutional participants or whales,” the analysis explains.
High demand in the spot market, especially on Binance, “may act as a leading indicator of incoming price support and renewed upward pressure,” he explains.
Macroeconomic liquidity boosts optimism
Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve's (FED) net liquidity reached $6.17 trillion, a crucial factor for assets considered " risky " like Bitcoin.
The following chart shows the Fed's net liquidity and the price of BTC. It shows a general trend in which periods of increasing Fed net liquidity (rising blue line or green bars) are often accompanied by, or precede, increases in the price of Bitcoin (orange line). This is evident, for example, in late July and early August.
Fed Net liquidity and the price of Bitcoin. Source: CryptoQuant.
“An expansion in net liquidity means there is more cash circulating in the financial system, which can flow into stocks, bitcoin, and cryptocurrencies,” CryptoQuant details.
This increase, which reflects a possible shift by the Fed toward easing financial conditions, has historically coincided with market rallies, as seen in late 2023 and early 2024, the analyst notes.
Bullish scenario for bitcoin
Taha projects a promising future: “Bitcoin’s upward trajectory looks set to continue.” The convergence of massive volume on Binance and the expansion of net liquidity from the Fed creates favorable conditions for a rally.
"If past patterns hold, Bitcoin could return to higher levels in the short term, with potential targets shaped by liquidity inflows and speculative positioning," the analyst said.
Bitcoin is currently trading at $113,000. The recent correction, far from being a cause for alarm, could be a window to acquire the digital currency at attractive prices. If the price clearly surpasses $125,000, its next price could reach $141,000 as the next technical and psychological target, where it could face significant selling pressure.
The Bitcoin market is at an inflection point. Intense activity on Binance, supported by a favorable macroeconomic environment, indicates that large investors are positioning for a rebound.
