Bitcoin research firm Vector projects a possible breakout to new all-time highs for Bitcoin (BTC), but warns of significant risks due to weak momentum and low risk appetite.
This technical price structure is consolidated for an upward movement, although the firm notes that the combination of the aforementioned factors could result in a failed breakout or a highly volatile scenario, recommending caution to investors.
In this context, Bitcoin Vector states that “an attack on the ATH zone is imminent,” but highlights the fragility of the market.
For its part, SwissBlock complements this view by predicting a slight decline before Bitcoin seeks its all-time high, in line with signs of elevated risk.
Willy Woo’s risk model, based on on-chain data, indicates that the market is “overheated,” at levels that historically preceded significant peaks or corrections.
“The market is hot, caution is advised,” he notes, highlighting the stability of the risk signal, but also the lack of robust momentum.
The chart below shows two key indicators: the Bitcoin price (in orange) and the Risk Off Signal (in red and blue). The latter marks periods of high risk (red) and low risk (blue). Currently, the price is approaching $108,000 and $109,000, but the oscillator indicates an elevated risk level (marked 1), similar to past patterns preceding corrections. The low-risk segment (marked 2) shows recent, albeit fragile, stability.
Bitcoin risk signal. Source: Bitcoin Vector.
Despite these warnings, the low-risk regime has sustained the uptrend so far. Both firms agree that a breakout toward the ATH requires improved momentum and reduced risk.
Bitcoin is currently trading between $108,000 and $110,000, with a bearish liquidation zone between $104,000 and $106,000 that could be triggered before a decisive bullish move, as seen in the chart below.
Bitcoin price analysis. Source: Swissblock.
Bitcoin Vector suggests that the attack on the ATH could come after a temporary correction, creating a "bear trap" before the final breakout. Last May, Bitcoin reached its all-time high of $111,900. Now, investors are watching to see whether the market will sustain the momentum needed to surpass that mark or face a correction before reaching it.
