“All I know is in a split second; my money is gone.” That’s how a bull must have felt over the past few days when the market suddenly went bearish. Boy, the drop from $2,000 to $1,500 in ETH price sure is painful. Anyway, what precipitated the unexpected bearish reversal in the market? Is it true that crypto winter is imminent? I believe no one has the definitive answer to the second question. However, I got some data that might likely answer the first question. Let’s dive right in.

Jackson Hole Symposium

Obviously, cryptocurrency is going to react to this upcoming event. In fact, every market in the world, from stocks to commodities, reacts dramatically to it. The Federal Reserve will deliver a speech on August 26. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) increased prior to the speech, which is essentially a fear and greed index for the stock market. The crypto fear and greed index plummeted from approximately 40 to somewhere 20. The Fed is likely going to continue its hawkish stance during the speech, which should technically crash all the markets except the dollar. But of course, the market always reacts ahead of the news, and I’ll say the market is already priced in unless Jerome drops a bombshell.

So, what should one do now? If you are a day trader, you likely already know the significance of avoiding trading on that day. For long-term crypto holders, it is prudent to continue holding large caps, initiate DCA, and buy the dip. Or perhaps not, as the crypto winter could be long and brutal, unlike that one in 2018.

I don’t really believe in stuff like this because it failed to consider the long-term debt cycle of the U.S. economy, which is roughly 50-75 years long. Numerous analysts believe that deleveraging has only just begun. I don’t know. I just think extrapolating based on a 4-year cycle of a tiny digital asset (Apple’s market cap is bigger than all the cryptocurrencies combined) while ignoring a greater cycle at play is utterly foolish. But at the same time, I don’t want to be like the boomer financial or economic experts; they missed all the astronomical gains of cryptocurrency and are perpetually furious about it.