I should preface this by saying that this isn't a technical analysis. I'm not going to crunch numbers, because I'd nod off while writing it, and you'd fall asleep while reading it.
This is more like a take on a currency I've used for roughly 60 percent of my life so far.
The EURO's biggest strength is also a weakness. The ability to transact seamlessly between different countries provides advantages. And those advantages apply both at a macro level and at a micro level.
At a macro level, countries can trade with one another with the same currency. At a micro level, you can drive from the tip of Portugal to the tip of Estonia and pay everything and everyone along the way using the same currency.
This certainly sounds like an advantage.
However, it is also a weakness. This is because with the EURO, you're putting drastically different countries, with different economies and different approaches to spending money under the same umbrella. And those countries often dislike each other.
I don't know why this is such a taboo. It's just the way it is.
So if you force everybody to use the same currency, it's trouble waiting to happen. And in fact it has happened. And it is still happening.
This, again, affects everybody at a macro level and a micro level.
Since you're using the same currency as your neighbours, you don't have the ability and the flexibility to 'manipulate' the currency to fight inflation, for example.
Also, the EURO removes layers of the wall that help absorb the impact of financial turmoil.
If we live under the same roof, and I break the sink, my problems are your problems. It's inevitable.
But that's not the biggest issue. The biggest issue, in my view, is the smallest denomination of the EURO is too large.
The smallest bill is 5 euros. That's a lot of money in a lot of neighbouring countries that don't use the EURO. You can buy a meal with that. Sometimes two meals.
Also, precisely because of that, you tend to price things to the nearest 50c.
I spend a lot of time in Croatia and the difference between before and after the adoption of the EURO was so blatant it's almost comical.
I remember travelling there in late November 2021 and again in early January 2022 and prices had already gone up 30%.
That's because in November, they had the KUNA, in January, they had the EURO.
With the KUNA, you could buy coffee and it would cost the equivalent of €1.27, you would buy a sandwich and it would be €1.78, you'd have a beer and it would be €2.07.
But those price tags make no sense in EUROs, which is why the second you adopt the EURO, that coffee will cost you €1.30 and the sandwich €1.80 and the beer €2.10.
Except, those prices are also not particular convenient in EUROs so two weeks later, coffee is now €1.50, sandwich is €2 and the beer is €2.50.
Before you know it, your €1.27 sandwich costs €4 or €5.
However, at the opposite end of the scale, your salary isn't going up. It is just 'translated'.
If you were making, say, €1.270 (in KUNA), it's not like you're now making €1.500.
If you're lucky, you get a +0.5 % or 1% adjustment when everything else you buy daily went up 20 or 30%.
As you may have gathered, I'm not the biggest fan of the EURO. However, I also believe it is now irreversible. Going back to individual different currencies would heavily damage the economies of countries that are doing relatively well.
And it would collapse the economies of countries that aren't doing so well.
So what is the solution? I only have one.
We absolutely need €2 and €1 notes. That would help immensely. Much more than we think.
At the end of the day, I'm very glad my salary isn't euros. I'm glad I don't transact in euros daily because I live in a country that uses a different currency. And I'm glad I'm in crypto.