After I came across a link by accident about the webinar 'Life Before the Last Halving' organized by Kraken with Dan Held and featuring some famous people from the crypto space like Erik Voorhees, Tuur Deemester and Charlie Lee and decided spontaneously to attend, I just want to give you a quick recap about the outcome as not many might have seen it.
Here are my notes about it:
- being 20 minutes into the webinar, they talked about how each of them started to get into Bitcoin, what experience they made over time talking to friends, the most common things they had to deal with talking about Bitcoin, etc.
- nothing exciting so far. 10 minutes talk about how everyone perceived the situation from Mt Gox and how it has affected the industry...
- another 10 minutes gone...the talk moved from Mt Gox to personalities each one have met during their time working in the crypto space. If you don't have any background what has happened it is pretty boring to listen to.
- I started to write questions through the zoom chat asking about their predictions about BTC after the halving. No response yet...
- one hour into the webinar: 1st question about the halving:
What is different between the halving that took place in 2016 to the upcoming one in 2020?
Bottom line: Nothing. Bitcoin is here to stay.
In my opinion, they are selling the news, as all technical indicators are showing signals for BTC being overbought even on larger time scales...remember the Litecoin halving a few months ago. The price didn't take off and it doesn't really seem to be connected to the BTC price as it performs very poorly today. Overall, I am disappointed with this webinar. It is slightly confusing to see how they move in their own sphere...maybe I would be the same being a millionaire holding tons of coins.
Nonetheless, I would like to point out the document from Kraken covering some topics of the halving: https://kraken.docsend.com/view/qgmyea2fxeadyk2r - At least it will give you a good overview of what has happened in the past.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Bitcoin is hailed as the soundest form of non-sovereign digital money. Much of this reputation stems from a strictly regulated rate
of supply growth, which unambiguously and mathematically limits total supply to 21 million bitcoins. Less known, the reason bitcoin
supply is so predictably scarce is the byproduct of a hard-coded event casually referred to as the halving (or “halvening”).
The halving occurs every 210,000 blocks, or roughly every four years, and reduces Bitcoin’s block subsidy by -50%. The next bitcoin
halving - the third in the network’s existence - will occur at block 630,000, which is expected to take place on May 12, 2020. This
halving will reduce the block subsidy, which is included in the coinbase transaction, from 12.5 bitcoins per block to 6.25 bitcoins
per block, and supply growth from 3.72% to 1.79%. For the first time ever, Bitcoin’s supply growth rate will fall below the 2% inflation
target used by most central banks for their respective fiat currencies. As of January 31, 2020, 18.19M bitcoins have been minted,
representing approximately 87% of the total supply.
Historically, the halving of block subsidies is regularly cited as a bullish trigger, but will history repeat itself? This report discusses
trends around previous halving events, bitcoin in the context of other commodities, and the relevant impact on the mining community.
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