Guys, I get it, you love bitcoin.

But you know what?

You loving bitcoin so unconditionally is exactly why crypto content creators are so biased. They post way more content about why bitcoin will go up compared to content about why the bitcoin price will go down. Why? Because that's all anyone really wants to hear about.

In a lot of ways, I think this makes sense. I believe that the Bitcoin network and everything it stands for will thrive and create many many millionaires and billionaires for those who can think long term.

The thing you have to understand, however, is that bitcoin is highly volatile. It's less volatile than it used to be, true. But judging by how fast we went from $10k to $20k, things don't look so safe. 

So, when should you buy bitcoin? That's the million dollar question. As usual, the best answer involves admitting that there is no simple answer. You can watch the video above for my full analysis.

My strategy for buying back takes into account bitcoin's price history as well as pure randomness. I looked at every retracement of over 15% between 2015 and 2017 and this is was the result:

Now, compare that to the retracement we have had during the recent 100% move up. We have literally only retraced 16.5% once which lasted just 2 days. If we break 20k now without any retracement of over 20%, it would be highly unusual considering bitcoin's price history. Don't forget that 20k represents the all time high.

So my strategy involves dynamic dollar cost averaging. This means that I have a fixed amount that I want to invest into bitcoin every week over the coming two months. If the bitcoin price drops more than 5% or 10% compared to the week before, I invest more than that fixed amount, if it goes up by 5% or 10% I invest less. This is what makes it dynamic. Also, since I expect the price to drop over the coming weeks, I could very well have all my fiat invested into crypto over the coming 3 to 4 weeks if we see another 20-30% correction.

Listen, I get it, fundamentals look awesome. Thing is, fundamentals can't hold bitcoin up forever. What goes up must come down. What goes up a lot must come down a lot. Don't believe me? Just take a look at how violently bitcoin retraced during its 11 year history. When it rains, it pours.

All this being said, I have mad respect for those who couldn't care less about short term bitcoin price movements. If you've bought bitcoin and are hodling strong no matter what, all the more power to you. I'm sure you will have no regrets several years from now!