Do your Homework, Hodlers! ;)
The purge in my opinion, has already started over these past holidays.
Value has been repatriated away from some obvious 'flat-lining' Shitcoins, and placed elsewhere as smart investors get ready for a 2020 repeat of the Jan. to June 2X Ramp of 2019.
OK within the top 30 of CoinMarketCap where 95% of the Market Value is located, there are some shitcoins lurking as the real losers in 2020 and, many more in the rest of the Top 100.
My 'spidey' sense (after lots of homework the last few years) tells me the Shitcoin Purge of 2020 is well underway, so this post is about sharing a few thoughts to help fellow investors
On the bright side, in that same Top 30, there are some real winners in the altcoin space, really starting to deliver value in different market segments, followed by the "On the Bubble" coins and sadly there are a few coins descending into Shitcoin land rapidly, or at least on the (bubble)
Let's take a look first at my projected Winners for 2020, based on a few parameters I evaluate, being, team capabilities & understanding the challenges in front of them for 2020, past execution up to end of 2019, particularly the last 18 months, Community cohesion (are they on the same page and resources properly/focused on the important issues ) and RoadMap plan quality for 2020 and finally, what I believe the chances each roadmap item being realistically achieved in terms of scope and time frame in 2020. I am going to assume they have the cash runway to pay for the team's efforts, however this indeed may not be the case, so buyer beware.
Again no one receives a 10 of 10 in my book. I will follow up with four detailed posts of each quartile on the TOP 100 list in the next month
TK Disclaimer: Anything over the Top 100 is certainly not a shitcoin, I will sift through these small cap alt-coins selectively in the coming months using the same methodology, when I see something that stands out good, bad, or on the bubble, using the above criteria.
General Market Cap Growth Prognosis for the Top 30 in 2020 : Repeat of the 2X Ramp of 2019, Jan. to June in 2020
2020 has some real upside for those delivering real value, especially January to June, where I expect a repeat of the 2X ramp we experienced in 2019 based on human nature, barring big economic disasters (10% likelihood) or global "hot" wars (20%). We are in the midst of the US/China and EU conflicts and have been for the last two years with more of the same predicted give and take in 2020.
IMO 2020 will be the shakeout year, with No more hiding behind the R&D, Research and Development labels, Investors expect "the rubber to hit the road" and want results. The Two Year "Honeymoon" period is over as afforded to most of the Top 30 (with a big exception being Dan Larimer led EOS, he gets a pass having bit off more than he can handle, as well as Chainlink and Cosmos, the latter two both newcomers to the Top 30 in 2019 delivering some much needed Inter-blockchain inter-operability, the new crypto blockchain router/converters of the industry (sort of).
(Bubble) Player Top 3 List & Prognosis: Who will fall out of the Top 30?
Current Ranking per CoinMarket Cap
2 (#ETH)- Yup Ethereum is in a make or break situation.., if everything does go wrong, ETH drops out of the Top 30...
While it seems a stretch to some, Ethereum is my "star candidate" here to crash out of the Top 30, as 2020 is shaping up to be a make or break year with everyone looking for the "community" to deliver on Ethereum 2.0. Don't get me wrong the likelihood of this happening is maybe 30% in my view. However to get the TPS "Transaction Per Second" rates boosted from an anemic 15 tp/s to something/anything more respectable to support all the ERC20 centric Smart Contract traffic is really what is "on the table" in 2020 for #ETH, so I hope they show up and deliver. KryptoKitties was a painful lesson for the the ETH Wunderkind types back in 2018. IMO ETH got a pass card from the market then because EOS and other SC centric platforms like TRON, WAVES, IOTA(WIP) and others did not execute either in 2019, for various different reasons, or were too early in their delivery cycle. My 'read' is if ETH community does not deliver Ethereum 2.0 with decent TPS using PoW and, simply rely on PoS "bolt on" Consensus to replace PoW to "save the 'TPS' day", the real "blockchain" miners (read mining pools) will be alienated and "mine" elsewhere , as the alternatives roll out more tools in 2020 to better support the developer migration from Solidity to other alt-coins using JS like scripts to run Smart Contracts. That said, Ethereum developers are like Apple MAC users, some will never leave, and even if there are delays the ETH Community is large enough to soldier on and eventually deliver on TPS for PoW centric Miners and Mining Pools, all of whom have large sunk costs and three year amortization schedules on their hardware, given the change in tech these days, hardware cost rights offs will be fast, and carried forward in many cases as a loss for seven years in the US. So there is a market co-dependency effect here, if other SC challengers really deliver in 2020, and ETH does not deliver at all, it's potentially not looking good for the ETH community in 2020. (It might be another UNI Waterloo birthed NIH BB/RIM meltdown moment?). If ETH partially executes on delivering ETH 2.0 and drops PoW, and the others in the PoW SC space really do execute, which is 80% likely imo, in the latter case, expect ETH to fall out of the Top 10 in terms of Market Cap Valuation in 2020. That latter scenario, would mean the ETH price will drop at least 50% by end of 2020. I wish the ETH community and their leaders well, they have, in many respects shown us the early "SC way" in the first 'wave' of blockchain tech innovation. Can ETH catch the 2nd (perform @ scale with TPS) & now emerging 3rd wave (Multi format inter-change support a la #Chainlink and #Cosmos) of SC innovation? 2020 is the year ETH needs to deliver with ETH 2.0 PoW TPS scaling + PoS.Do that and ETH stick right where they are in #2 spot and get pulled up the Jan to June Ramp, somewhat by enough investors who believe they will do it.
30 (#NEM)- NEM so inclusive, letting the non techie biz types play, is it enough?
NEM is a Singapore "make your own token platform" without writing code has a compelling offer for the business versus technical fan of cryptocurrencies. That said NEM has not seen the adoption of the other emerging SC smart contract supporting Blockchain as a Service platform with (partial)built in ICO launch capabilities. NEM for "most outside looking in" from western economies is a 'regional' Asia/Pacific 'play' outside the China a HK sphere, which in many ways competes directly with South Korean and Japanese offers in the space. Personally I like the platform, as the NEM approach is inclusive as a Blockchain/ICO as a Service play, but, really, How many new "altcoins" does the world really need? Some introspective analysis is due at NEM, to re-focus their energies on the key value attributes of the NEM platform, which means IMO, dropping the altcoin/ICO launch.
27 (#Ontology) - Custom public permissionless or permissioned blockchains for Enterprise clients, which is it?
Ontology bills itself as "a high performance public blockchain and distributed collaboration platform". All good. A double consensus coin+utility token play , Ontology sells itself as a developer of public block chains targeting public and corporate clients to take on their tech to solve problems. Having come from the "chop shop" world of custom software in the RDMS DB, ERP/CRM space running on PC Networks (the early 'caveman' version of DL if wired correctly) , there is money to be made here, provided you have modular re-use-able code which can be tailored primarily via parameters, more than custom coding and testing and supported effectively at low cost. This type of "custom " public permissionless , private anonymous DL business is hard to scale (one client at a time), so while I think there is a market, the Ontology tech offer is complex and requires a lot of support effort in its current form, never mind the sales effort. IMO Ontology will nee a couple of big regional or even global integration partners to step up to give Ontology the 'feet on the street" sales coverage and developer "bench strength" and code/test production capacity. Even then, expect Ontology to slide out of the Top 30 in 2020, replaced by other challenging "Juggernaut" value which scales fast with less effort, and solves either broad business and consumer challenges, or add real value (and 'jingle') into consumer and business pockets alike. Relying on the gaming market and Dapp revenue is not going to cut it (stay in the top 30) in 2020.
Top 30 Challengers: The Top 3 List is Short when looking at the current Top 100 list
The Big Question for 2020? Who will break into the Top 30 in 2020 and stay there (Riding the Ramp Jan to June 2020)?
Three on the Cusp of Greatness... (and sort of obvious picks)
The immediate "on the Bubble" onward and upward Challengers:
31 #BAT- Brave has thrown their advertising gauntlet challenge on the ground hard, lots have noticed , and they are winning, against Google...
BAT issued by the developers of the Brave Browser, have been flirting with joining the Top 30 group, being in and out of the Top 30 most of 2019. Brave's advertising model rewarding permissioned view of Ads which allow viewers to also reward advertisers mixed in with air drops running on #PublishOx for example also rewarding publishers and viewers of content gets my vote every time. Brave's Brendan Eich and his IETF seasoned expert Marshall Rose, know exactly what they are doing, they are busting Google's advertising model and "strangle hold" on social media ad revenue, as Brave Browser user count rises rapidly across all platform types, Brave's superior ad blocking tech and browser speed is winning the day, every day. Advertisers are starting to wake up to the specific permissioned ad targeting and ad budget cost offset Brave offers within their reward model of BAT. Brave has issued about 95% of their allotted count count, so little if any deflation effect is expected in 2020. As a result i expect BAT's value to rise more or less in line with the market led by BTC which I have predicted in earlier posts to at least double from January this year to June 2020. Will BAT rise faster than others in the top 30? I think so. Again my opinion is my own, so do your own research.
32 #Zcash - Zero Proof Wunderkind and Fast Settlement with great Daily Volume Use.
Zcash is arguably the most interesting and useful fast payment anonymous public ledger "blockchain" near the Top 30 and, has itself been flirting with Top 30 status for most of 2019 with some interesting zero proof tech advances protecting ID details selectively in P2P transactions. Zcash IS cool tech, gets used a lot (checkout the daily volumes) and, is traded on multiple markets, while others, ETH included, are copying the tech, creating a version of Zero Proof in their own form. Copycat behavior is the greatest form of flattery in the tech world, and Zcash has big tech proven shoulders on which others can stand on when it comes to their Zero Proof tech and fast transaction settlement architecture. Plus Zcash are public anonymous (oh I said that, worth saying again). Go, Go Go!, Zcash will likely imo, get towed by BTC upswing ramp Jan to June 2020 and do better than 2X moving easily in to the Top 30 for 2020.
33 #PAXOS Standard - A "bona-fide" Tether alternative, with a stable mate called USD coin, both will attract biz way from Tether me thinks...
PAX a "late charging" Stable Coin poised to enter the Top 30 in 2019. PAX is pushing over US $300M in daily volume in and out of the Crypto and Fiat markets as well as enabling trading and easy switching between ERC20 centric tokens and coins within the great crypto market. PAX is Ethereum based operationally, which is good for the ETH community, as PAX is a emerging as a real player "parked" at the edge of the ETH open source project. sounds good until you put PAX daily volume into perspective relative to the Stable Coin leader Tether doing US $23B per day, about 80X more volume, routinely managing more value flow than even BTC? Ok Tether is centrally controlled by a few interested parties, true, and, that is where PAX delivers, running on the vast ETH network of Nodes, which is by design, more robust than Tether. As a "near fail-safe" option to Tether, together with USD Coin Ranked 22nd in Market Value today (doing about the same volume as PAX) I expect clients of Tether to also load up on both of these newer stable coins to "hedge" against Tether unilateral actions both natural or disaster driven, which means I expect PAX to move up comfortably into the Top 30, especially as mature "big money" Fintech clients of Stable Coin using Tether in 2019 will always want three choices, starting in 2020 to protect their "earned" value "transaction "routes".
2020 Dark Horses: Seen and unseen, seemingly coming from "Nowhere"?:
2 visible picks to consider currently in the Top 100 (and some musings regarding ICOs)
Top 100 Dark horse Challengers we Know, and maybe love. Two on the Top 100 list and two really big "Lurkers in the Dark" ;\
37 #QTUM (Quantum) - What PoS Ethereum 2.0 will be , now served up as Quantum "QTM" , why wait, maybe its time to switch?
QTUM's 5000 node network running on line handling US$ 250M daily in volume, with PoS fast settlement muscle and full scripted Smart Contract capabilities sounds a lot like Eth2.0 minus PoW, and the community voting structure is built in to let Qtum progress forward against their roadmap in a democratic manner. Hmm, one might say "where have these guys been all my crypto life", a good question and worth a "deeper dive'. QTUM's intro video says they have been running this network 24/7 for over one year, ok Kudos are in order. If you like and trust a Blockchain developed/ led by "Berkeley and Columbia Researchers" then QTUM is worthy of consideration. Still I worry about backdoor hacks when I here those two words, but that's just me. QTUM "Quantum" has their own virtual machine capable of running programs written in C, C++, Rust and Python. the first three require some development 'chops' and experience, where as Python is easy in script form, for the JS and Solidity crowd to migrate SC code faster with quality, which in the latter case, I like, a lot. QTM scale transactions peer 2 peer via Smart Contracts with parallel contraction execution , which is a neat tech "trick" which somewhat gets around ETH 1.0 TPS limitations of max 15 TP/S. The QTM "Gas" price of transactions and value of Rewards (for operating a node) on QTM is effectively community determined, transaction parallelism effectively reduces the price of "gas", which sets QTM apart from the ETH community. While I am not a fan of transaction fees and energy intensive mining PoW consensus, QTM's approach is better than most. QTM is also pushing UNITA enterprise edition of QTM which head on, competes in the private permissioned space dominated by #Hyperledger. This two prong approach is manageable, however a bit schizophrenic and could be a distraction throughout 2020. Time will tell. To get in to the Top 30, QTM will need to at least triple their valuation before end of 2020, given QTM are 50% of the 30th place holder NEM, if BTC doubles in the next 6 months which would be a repeat of the 2019 ramp Jan to June.
65 #BitTorrent - Venerable Brand Name Recognition, TRON development/test Muscle & $$$, Client Adoption for file sharing with Rewards is likely, Go, go, Go!
The story of Bit Torrent is Tron related "Tokenizing the world’s largest decentralized file sharing protocol with BTT", Tron being a prominent crypto SC Smart Contract player is the Asia/Pac region ranked 12th by Market Value today. BTT itself located in San Francisco and is essentially an Internet technology company "designing distributed technologies that scale efficiently, keep intelligence at the edge, and keep creators and consumers in control of their content and data. More than 170 million people use our products every month. Our protocols move as much as 40% of the world's Internet traffic on a daily basis." Monetizing file sharing is taking many forms in the crypto world. The advantage BiT Torrent has over the other competitors in this space "selling distributed encrypted storage sharing" as the way to earn/spend cryptocurrency, like #SIA, #Storj, #Maidsafe (soon with Vault), and soon IOTA with Qubic (operated via Smart Contracts) is "brand recognition" with the masses (watching videos over the Internet mainly), recognition which can go along way to carrying BitTorrent into the Top 30. Bit Torrrent was acquired by TRON for US$140 and have since in 2019 raised US $43 M to power BTT forward. looking at their roadmap, BitTorrent has a Freemium "go 2 market" strategy with their paid for Pro and Free clients operating on Windows and newly introduced Android client. Bit Torrent will need to add Apple IOS sport to grab the US market share there of 54% versus Android, otherwise, Android support dominates 78% of the world mobile devices. (The other world 11% is effectively the US market plus rest of world Apple mobile users making up the other 11%). How many of those become "Main St." economy paying customers/subscribers operating the BTT client remains to be seen. Telegram is out there and has big plans, as well as a ever growing huge installed base they can roll, and looks to be the emerging direct competition. for now, imo, BTT, which is well financed and has developer/tester muscle, could crack the Top 30 late in 2020, especially if the others mentioned don't execute properly which is 50% likely at this point given past track records of each over 2018 and 2019.
#Telegram -Does anybody want to talk about the elephant in the Room.
Oh Where or Where did my Telegram go? That is the big question for 2020 in the crypto space, after retreating from their planned ICO, Telegram is an "Enigma wrapped up in mystery" at the Moment. I am going to save the detail for later in depth analysis post. Telegram are out there, like the great white shark getting ready to strike. Make no mistake the Telegram impact will be big as they "roll"their ever growing installed base into the world of crypto micro-transactions, while they vanquish the use of others in the DM private/protected messaging space. (with maybe the exception of Signal) . Will Telegram tokens get used for P2P and retail micro purchases? IMO yes and more, in volume, at scale. (What Kik with KIN always dreamed of and did not pull off, probably a lot of UNI Waterloo NIH going on at the time, shame.). the US SEC is fishing on China's request, this will go nowhere, If Telegram is blocked in the USA, Russia and China, it won't matter, the use will still be everywhere else. Interesting Telegram is also defending TRON, asking the US Courts to block the SEC's request for their ICO filing. Its heating up big time and worth a watch
#Libra - Finally a Jekyll Island combatant? No Wait, its the same team, fighting among themselves for imagined crypto supremacy?
The Libra "Gang of 22" is now a bit smaller with the credit card guys "jumping ship". That said, Libra IS "the old boys" club flexing their legacy fintech fiat reserves, looking to place a lot of cheap debt money into a cryptocurrency settlement/payment network play they can control as tightly as they did their now, slowly crumbling Credit Card & SWIFT empire of FIAT. Libra has a couple of giant hurdle "optics" to jump over before they can jump into the "ring" and show us what they really have, in terms of added value. The President of the USA might seem to be the obstacle, however the real hurdles are big investment money which are not in the Gang of 20 led by MZ of FB AND the big Central Banks also wanting to jump into the fray starting in 2020, me thinks, with some form of crypto SDR Special Drawing Right operating on a private permissioned distributed ledger technology used by its members, as hinted at by Bank of England's Mark Carney which I describe in a previous post. I expect the US govt to hold up Libra until after the US Fall 2020 election, and then orchestrate the US Federal government "Crypto Inquisition" into Libra shortly thereafter, should #Trump prevail (he is on the other side of MZ FB's political spectrum ), which means IMO Libra will "never see the light of day" in its current form and will require some massive technical overhauls, with regard to money supply "hard store of value" coin limits and mining methods, to prevent Libra from becoming its own money printer competing with all fiat currencies. That said, Ripple is making waves in the Central Bank space and is being used under trial for know how transfer reasons by a couple of Central Banks who hold ownership positions in the US FED, meaning I expect Ripple to license their tech to the group of central banks talking about SDRs including the FED.
Who Falls out of the Top 30 to Make room for the projected New comers?
My Short list of 5 (Soon to make history as "Shitcoins?) in no particular order
30 NEM I do like the NEM platform as mentioned because of it's inclusive design for non tech types, as a result NEM is the only one on this list which will avoid Shitcoin status imo. That said, NEM is less likely to be towed up the Jan to June Ramp prior to falling of in the summer, and will fall out of the top 3, meaning speculators, smart ones holding NEM are likely to switch off to other coins which will track with BTC during this period if not exceed the 2X multiplier I am predicting in the repeat of the Jna to June 2019 ramp coming our way, right now.
29 Dogecoin.., "The Coin About Nothing" a la the TV Series "Seinfeld", has been remarkably resilient through 2019 and 2018, there is a loyal following, but is that enough, simply allowing speculators to get rich in the mining space, and hodlers hoping for upside? I think not. Well at least the Mascot knows how to do re-color this coin properly. Loyalty buys you only so much when you are trying to protect "earned" value in a highly speculative market. Again Dogecoin gets towed up the repeat 2019 Jan to June ramp for 2020, but it will not be a 2X multiple for Dogecoin, so maybe its time to sell and buy something that will?
28 VeChain - Sorry Tracking product movement and provenance, while a reasonable value add goal, is just not enough despite the "knobs for nerds" found in VeChainThor blockchain tech... namely "Meta-transaction features native to VeChainThor blockchain’s core protocol, such as multi-party payment, multi-task transaction, controllable transaction life cycle, transaction dependency, make the development more user-friendly for enterprise adoption." Ok, sounds good on the surface, but right now Vechain is in science experiment mode, with lots of spin. (I must say I really I started laughing when I saw Vechain's recent front page intro video on VeChainThor, as I was transported into a 3D video game-like fog of "marketing spin", which I guess the gamers will like.) How far VeChain falls down the Top 100 table is up to them.It might be a good short play.
25 Crypto.com coin - A Hong Kong play all the way, "Enabling transactions worldwide between merchants and cryptocurrency users — seamless, secure and cost efficient.", with big promises on TPS, however the volume they are supporting daily is small to date, relative to most players on the Top 30, so where is the use-age, client base? HK is known to be the gateway to China, so its hard to gauge how much of Crypto.com bows to the CPC. Do they have the development muscle to pull off their complicated architecture? We will see in 2020, where at the end of the year, we will see whether or not Crypto sticks in the top 30. Again a short play possibility, and not a hodler play in the midterms next 12 to 18 months, in that the valuation has been pretty steady since April of 2019 shortly after they first traded in the market in march of 2019. There is lots of competition out there, and its less likely they can towed up the ramp Jan. to June 2020
21 HedgeTrade - Hmm the idea sounds compelling at first. "HedgeTrade is a platform where " the world’s best traders share their knowledge. Traders post predictions into a smart contract-powered Blueprint that users can purchase or unlock in order to access.Traders are rewarded if the Blueprint is correct, otherwise the users purchase is refunded." Clearly a play focused on a small audience who knows what they are doing moving large amounts of value around. That said, the competition is fierce and day trade, short trade success determined in the "Game of Hedging". Show me one Hedge fund manager who has outperformed the S&P market in a medium term cycle over 18 to 24 months, and you will be able to count them on one hand. That said if the wheels fall off the market after the 2020 election in the fall, this could be a decent play, whether there is the volume and interest to keep Hedgetrade in the Top 30 is another story. Being 'first' in a narrow market segment, is usually is not a long term recipe for success, especially using follow on tech. let's revisit end of 2020 to see how they make out. There are several quality altcoin and token plays which will be towed up the repeat ramp I keep talking about, and well Hedgetrade imo wont be one of those that tracks with BTC's projected rise over this period (driven by human nature, barring economic disasters, and big global wars.) In fact expect many others with hedge fund expertise to come and do the same thing starting in 20202 as the barriers to entry are low. in this part of the market segment with little to differentiate.
Ok there you have it, my Top 30 "Moves, Adds, Changes" prognosis, let me know what you think or ask me anything in the comments section
End of 2020, I will also checkout the year to see how I did. ;)
TK over and Out!