1) Ten key factors, which contribute to BTC price decline in the future
1.1 Many BTC bulls sold BTC at the top of the last cycle. Some of them completely abandoned BTC, but some stay in cash and wait for BTC to go to $10,000. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g3ck-5lkrLY
1.2 Most insiders take into account risks from synergy of AI and QCs and reduce the risk by selling BTC.
1.3 Rotation to RWA backed cryptos will reduce demand for BTC, going forward.
1.4 Hard forking into eCash, in August, also reduce demand for BTC.
1.5 In this year, over 140 corporations will start Open USD (OUSD) stablecoin, which also reduce demand for old cryptos.
1.6 Tokenization of US stocks also will reduce demand for old cryptos, because it will offer more and better investment opportunities.
1.7 New financial services from multiple companies, for example X-money from X, also reduce demand for BTC. https://finance.yahoo.com/personal-finance/banking/article/x-money-elon-musks-fintech-app-130000383.html
1.8 BTC treasury companies (Strategy, etc.) will be selling BTC to pay for cash outflows. Take into account the important detail: the lower BTC price, the MORE BTCs they need to sell. The more they sell, the LOWER the price will go. This is called the “death spiral of markets”. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/deathspiral.asp
1.9 Wrench attacks on crypto holders killed the engine of BTC super promotion on internet and in mass media, by influencers. This means that there are no many new buyers of BTC. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VZVTjg85JwA
1.10 Bitcoin Miners Pivot to Data Centers and sell their BTC reserves. https://gizmodo.com/bitcoin-miners-pivot-to-data-centers-pays-off-as-anthropic-signs-20-year-lease-2000781827
2) Six main assumptions of the analysis
2.1 Current Strategy’s reserves in cash: 2.55 bln USD
2.2 Cumulative dividends obligations per year: 1.76 bln USD
2.3 Amount of BTCs in the reserve: 847,363
2.4 Panic sales will start when over 50% of the BTC reserve will be used
2.5 Decline of BTC price per year:
Scenario 1 -10%;
Scenario 2 -20%
Scenario 3 -30%
Scenario 4 -40%
Scenario 5 -50%
2.6 BTC will be able to complete transition to the post-quantum era before the newly established deadline: 2029, despite the fact that there are only six software developers in the BTC software development team and according to their own estimates, it is required at least seven years to transition BTC to the post-quantum era.
3) Scenario 1
4) Scenario 2
5) Scenario 3
6) Scenario 4
7) Scenario 5
Conclusion: There are real risks that Strategy (and other BTC treasury companies) will not survive in the next 10 years, due to the “death spiral of markets”. When this will happen then BTC price will collapse, due to panic sales by BTC holders.
