I’ve been recently reading different trading analysis on Bitcoin, Ethereum and other currencies. 

If I have to resume the year 2019 I would do it in a following quick way:

After sharp declines of cryptos recorded in November and December 2018, there was a boring sideway market between the second half of December 2018 and the first half of February 2019. As of February altcoins started to wake up and rise in different sequence. Most of them hit their record highs between the end of March and during April and some until June. Then in the second quarter of 2019 a lot of Altcoins started to decrease, and the great BTC bull wave started. Do you remember how back then were we fascinated by the king BTC bull run? 

But… But as of the last week of June till the third week there started a long steady bear market. At the beginning it looked a little like a sideway trend but in August it started to show a sharp drop. The big wave of last drops was recorded just one week before Christmas.

But what has been happening since then?

Honestly, not much. Low volume on exchanges and a lot of cryptos started to play sideway game. 

What does it mean?

You can observe it for example in ETH wallets. Of course it will depend on your ERC-20 composition, but basically let’s suppose your average value is 100 dollars. One day you have 107. Another day you have 110. And the other day you have 92. But basically the total value of portolio is locked between range of values between 90 and 110, where the average value is 100 USD.

You can observe it in BTC 30 day chart. Since December 19th, it is going up and down between 6,950 USD till 7,500 USD. Other coins may look similar, it depend on each coin of course. It isn’t a universal crypto behavior.

A lot of people say that the bearish sentiment is dominant however we are probably in the most boring phase of a market which is the horizontal or sideway pattern. Where supports are strong, but it’s also difficult to overcome the resistances as well.

How long will it last?

I personally don’t know. What I can tell you is that last year it took around 2 months to produce a bull run. It can be also intermediate break before another pull back. I really can’t speculate.

I personally think that a lot of traders and investors know that we might be in the last part of the downtrend and a lot of them have high expectations of a new bull run. But I cannot assure you anything because right now it’s winter and so far the bears are hibernating; that’s what I can tell. My personal opinion isn’t a professional trader’s one, I assume and express it.

There were a lot of fundamental news which were favoring bear market in the last semester of 2019, mainly certain measures that were taken by governments which were against some cryptos. When you are at the bear market stage, any bad news weighs too much. But there have been a lot of positive news lately too.

For example, the recent attack on Youtube crypto related content; it can be considered from different point of views:

The negative one – a lot of crypto tubers have been there, gaining masses for crypto adoption and suddenly the hostility starts. We feel and consider it as an attack.

The positive one – a lot of them are starting joining the decentralized crypto social media. So money goes from Youtube to Uptrennd, Library, Steemit and other crypto social media.

There has been a lot of innovation in the cryptosphere in different fields, and lot of strategic alliances. Those are very positive news which we cannot forget and we have to pay attention to them. For example Uptrennd has worked on innovation and alliances with other blockchain projects; there are a lot of good news coming from Tron corporation. Recently I’ve started like Tron project again; believe it or not, they are doing a good marketing job.

I also get the point, that a lot of people have lost considerable worth of USD in cryptos but the market starts showing very probable reversal and there might be very good purchasing opportunities. When hoddling it’s also important to consider the dollar cost average method.

Let’s say you bought 0.01 BTC when it was 10,000 USD. Another 0.01 BTC when it was 8,000 USD. And 0.02 BTC when it was 6,500 USD. At this moment you would still have a recorded loss of 18.00 USD at the level of 7,300 USD. But if BTC hits 8,000 USD you would have a profit of 10 USD. 

So as you can see, consider your choices, make always good Technical Analysis but be aware that it is also a matter of time. How long? That’s what I cannot answer because I would be speculating. Some pro traders estimate the recovery for February or even March. We’ll have to wait and see. 

There are also opinions that expected BTC halving will favor Altcoins during 2020. So therefore I prefer probably a conservative method, which is a composed portfolio. My only rule there is that no coin should have more than 30% of the total portfolio share. In the composed portfolio you will see some coins recording profits and some losses. But at the end, you can start seeing pretty good results.

I know that it appears that the bears attacked a lot of innocent crypto coins or tokens, but it is also a healthy movement as well. Because believe it or not, it’s better to have a market with this kind of adjustment rather than parabolic scheme of BTC recorded in the last months of 2017, where BTC increased over 10 times, and then it was slowly falling during 2018.

So my message is: Be patient! And before any investment or exchange, do your own Technical and Fundamental Analysis!

 I prefer to trust myself more than others even if I am not a professional trader but I also identified my vices and mistakes which I won’t be making again.

You can also read this article on Uptrennd: https://www.uptrennd.com/post-detail/are-we-playing-a-sideway-crypto-game~MTg5Njk2

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