Bitcoin Observations
This is NOT investment advice.
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Bitcoin Weekly
Things are getting very interesting. Should see some confirmation in either direction fairly soon.
Took profits on short hedge Monday first 45 mins of the session. Got the rejection at very, very key level for now but just wouldn't flush it's been flexing its muscles all week.
Bitcoin 4HR
Glassnode Sanity Check
Let's check in with Glassnode and see how things look as we continue the war inside 91Kish-98Kish. This is a very interesting chart and excellent data. We can see how short term holders and long term holders are in a very different position. Note the improvement in the ground secured by long term holders since the brutal 2024 summer of chop. The troops continue to dig in and fortify positions.
The way I look at this next one is as follows: Da Boyz never left, they are simply aggressively opportunistic, ruthless, and capable of moving in and out very quickly. Translation: the Male Puma is always on alert and ready to pounce . . . . . . . but he'll bail when he sees fit for sure.
Bitcoin Bottom Line:
- Still inside the war 91Kish-98Kish but showing very good Relative Strength and strength overall
- FA/Macro only seems to get stronger
- Fed/Powell didn't do anything to add negative pressure specifically
- Most important thing is to let the market tell/show us if this is a new lower high or healthy consolidation
Metaplanet
Strategy
ZAP
ICOP
Powell Shrugs - Risk On/Off?
Fed wraps up its May meeting and Powell . . . . . . shrugs. Needs to monitor the risks to inflation and employment. Some volatility in imports, etc. due to tariff uncertainty but nothing major. No need to make any changes blah, blah, blah.
IWM Daily
I might start getting tempted for a trade/hedge if we can take a little rest here a bit lower. Light/nimble but another swing at the ole giddiness wouldn't be shocking, nor would the opposite. Not chasing though.
And none other than Paul Tudor Jones apparently agrees with us on being very cautious and pragmatic calling for new lows for the Spyder and Daq in 2025.
Bessent's Perspicuous Confirmation of Option B "Inflate It Away" . . . . . . . Likely Lost In The Wind
Bessent made some comments recently about reducing the 'credit risk' that America is projecting currently as a logical and organic means of reducing rates overall. I agree in theory. But how?
One way to reduce 'credit risk' is to show the bond market that A) you already own a ton of Bitcoin, and B) you are buying more and more. A is done. B?
Bessent also tossed out some real nuggets for anyone willing to simply read the exact quotes and use the correct context.
Reminder:
Option A - Deflationary collapse due to liquidity drained beyond point of return and breakdown in the bond market. Everything, and I mean everything, plummets but BTC holds up best.
Option B - America sets on an aggressive growth path with the associated policy to help in an effort to "inflate away the debt" by growing GDP faster than the outstanding balance of debt is growing. The main 'scorecard' would be Debt/GDP (Nominal GDP of course).
It's hidden in plain sight. See below for the actual quotes and direct references to measuring the Debt relative to GDP. Bessent is literally laying out Option B to include using an intriguing and clever term "upward growth shock". Yes I am aware he specified the deficits/GDP but conceptually the same and he is referring to Debt/GDP at the same time.
Ok, so what? And when is the damn QE coming? The audience and insiders that engaged with Bessent (note below) are well aware of this ambiguity on time and the impact on the bond market. To wit - they are asking the same "What gives" question that I am asking.
One group, BNP Paribas, indicates that Bessent could hammer the short end . . . . . . . for another three years thus starving LT debt investors of so much supply (in theory) that they can do nothing but buy, buy, buy the 10Y UST and send yields lower. Maybe it goes down that way, maybe it doesn't.
The main point: QE ain't coming next week.
Some recent auctions also suggest Bessent is bringing in new buyers and/or getting old/existing to step up more.
That all sounds interesting and is helpful for sure. I mean come on, he's laying it out in plain sight. But, who the heck is going to gobble up all these T-Bills and 2YR T-Notes? Ahhhh - stablecoins.
We said all along it's an intriguing and very unique situation we are in. Bitcoin is the beach ball. Bessent needs stablecoins badly. Perhaps, in the interest of time and clearing obstacles, the most efficient way to protect and enhance your pristine collateral AND drive stablecoin adoption is to simply . . . . . . . . . move Bitcoin to levels much, much, much higher than current levels.
Wild Card: One of the biggest threats America faces to its economy is energy capacity and infrastructure. We need a whole bunch more. One way to push the market to adapt and provide a lot more energy, in particular nuclear and electricity, is to ramp Bitcoin.
Ok, if you say so. Now show us how to thread the needle in the DC Swamp and actually get this done:
Oh - The Swamp could also delay/block/impede SLR reform. Translation: DC could slow down the onset of BanQE.
New Hampshire Secures Permanent Trolling Edge Over Massachusetts . . . . . . Yet Again
New Hampshire signs an SBR into law. The trolling here vis a vis Massachusetts could become epic as time goes on. I can see it now clear as day. 20 years from now a long term NH resident says to a long term MA resident: "Yeah we were buying Bitcoin while you and Healey were trying to surround the Cape and islands with windmills".
*Born and raised in Mass and reside there and have for a long time*
Strike Strikes Hard on Bitcoin Lending
Jack Mallers payments app Strike looking to add Bitcoin lending. More signal and reinforcement of the ecosystem. Strike three and you're out if you don't pay up.
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Alex Grey
Contemplation
