Bitcoin Observations
This is NOT investment advice.
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BOMO Unleashed . . . . . . . . . . Bessent Preps Battlefield For Option B and The 'Melt Up'
ZeroHedge.com published an excellent and helpful piece this week shining a light on Bessent's laying the groundwork for Option B and the 'Melt Up' - a match made in heaven.
The article highlights how Treasury Buybacks have been a thing for a while, but at quite modest amounts almost overlooked. The pattern above is clear and more are forthcoming. Here's the message I am getting from Bessent:
- Forget the Fed, here's something that will put a bid under UST and start laying the groundwork for balance sheet expansion: Bessent Open Market Operations (BOMO)
- SLR timeline and Powell into 2026, we'll start greasing the skids for Option B and the 'Melt Up' now
- If/when turbulence arrives the market already knows we are here
Hmmmmm, couple of observations:
- Bessent's preference is that we get long the 'Melt Up' and chill and ride it (I agree in the intermediate term and long term not so sure about the very short term)
- Bessent agrees wholeheartedly with our assessment that a whole bunch of stuff is indeed putting upwards pressure on yields and with a reluctant JPow he wants the market to see a buyer with ammo stepping up
- **The market knows about SOMA and BOMO, yet yields are not declining**
- Market got horrible manufacturing data and a lecture from higher ed on global growth slowing (but good and bad labor data) and yet yields did not decline
I'm sticking with what I said weeks ago. There is pressure pushing yields upwards coming from multiple directions. Bessent knows this that's why he's starting to load up the guns.
Bitcoin Weekly
Note the Flex back on the Weekly Money Flow. Money Flow on higher time frames is very, very important - crucial.
Bitcoin Daily
Liquidation Heat Map - 1 Week Time Frame
Bitcoin Bottom Line:
- Is Treasury Secretary Bessent, via BOMO, extending a hand and asking you to join him with the FOMO/MOMO Option B and 'Melt Up' though it might feel like some crazy Psychedelic Healing perhaps used by Mr. Grey at some point?
- $105.8Kish seems to be quite important on Volume Profile and otherwise, could be useful watching the action between that and the 103Kish level
- Weekly Money Flow adds a bit of Flex, for now holding up . . . . . for now
- Again, though BTC has shown impressive Flex by no means are we at zero correlation (Bond VOL very recently down capping BTC?, Risk On muted capping BTC?) . . . . . things to consider
Risk On/Off
Let's look at both TiNA and QQQ on a daily time frame. Both have price action highly suggestive of luring you back in to go on another tumultuous date with TiNA. Both have Money Flow and Volume suggesting you should be extremely cautious. That is the reality of where we are in my view with ES between 5900 and 6000 and BTC bouncing above the 103Kish area.
QQQ Daily
TiNA Daily
JGB 10YR Daily
Am I still crazy and insane for thinking it is plausible that JGBs find a way to break this triple top and at some point climb another 9 basis points or more?
Goldman Top Trader on economy heating up:
UST 10YR Daily
BOMO, SOMA, FOMO, MOMO, weak manufacturing and private sector jobs . . . . . . . yet still not exactly declining here now are we?
Risk On/Off Bottom Line:
- Wanted to see the market's reaction to the Trade War intensity rising . . . . . and it was Price drifts and floats higher while Volume and Money Flow fades
- My senses are strongly suggesting many participants are very heavily contemplating the very real existence of a much hotter Trade War (Sec 899), GeoPol war/nuclear speculation/apprehension, persistent pressure higher on yields, and more . . . . . . all as we sit right on this pivot point on the charts but also in history
- Market is not giving me crystal clear guidance but rather the opposite, light and nimble and no rush to make moves just to make them
Mining Transaction Fees
Luxor data:
Largest Bank In Russia Adds Bitcoin Tied Bonds
Based on the reporting from BitcoinMagazine.com, it appears that the largest bank in Russia is getting more involved with Bitcoin and tying it into the financial system. Game theory.
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Alex Grey
Psychedelic Healing
