Bitcoin Observations
This is NOT investment advice.
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Bitcoin Weekly
We still have a Green Dot and are flashing Green on the Weekly Money Flow, despite the 4HR dots banging back and forth Green, Red, Green, Red . . . . are you dizzy yet?
Bitcoin Daily
Bitcoin Daily, in my humble opinion, appears quite bullish they're teasing and testing you with that Money Flow in and out. No guarantees. Can it stick for a few days to get to the next level? Time will tell. Yes, in my opinion this daily looks bullish, but that does not mean it won't correct here. It has technically been rejected a few times past few days from important levels . . . . . . . . but the Daily/Weekly MF has stuck . . . . . so far.
Liquidation Heat Map - Higher Time Frame
Bitcoin Bottom Line
- As with Blue Night, we simply don't know if Mr. Wong was looking at a glass half full or half empty
- Let the market tell/show us what is next
- If a rejection is confirmed, key is staying above let's call it 95K-98Kish . . . . . . . the move above this a few days back was huge and very important
- it is very, very obvious that this 103Kish we pinned is quite significant and it is toying with either blasting above it or keeping you guessing and trying to shake your coins away from you
- for now, we do have a Green on the Weekly MF which is why for now it keeps snapping back
Should I Start Buying VOL?
If I find myself arguing with TiNA a lot more, which is very likely Spooz north of 5,900, that might be the time I should consider getting more long VOL. Note, data from ZeroHedge.com, how Bond VOL stopped declining last few sessions while equities continue the Melt Up for now. Dumped more than half of TiNA.
Yup, he's back on high alert:
Risk On/Off
Peace Dividend and "Deals Getting Done" . . . . . . . . regardless of any political drama or the experiences of the last handful of years, these are not to be underestimated in my humble view. It certainly looks more than plausible that investment capital is starting to flow into America in a big way. Conflicts are declining. Imagine a world with far less corruption and roadblocks in front of a naturally functioning economy?
Something to think about, but in the here and now we have giddiness and exuberance running rampant, but that doesn't mean it all reverses now (though it might soon).
QQQ double topped around 539-541ish and now is not that far from those levels with multiple gaps beneath it. I'm not looking to short at this point but it may be time to increase the levels of protection (see below). Yes, we can have a truly new and organic bull, but doesn't mean it won't stop to at least take a breather here and there. Or, this is all setting up for another major breakdown after the Volume Points of Control are worked over?
US 30YR Daily
US 10YR Weekly
US 2YR 4HR
Been more than just a few 4HR candles now at this point, a handful of full sessions.
Presenting The Choke - another one of the stupid ideas starting to percolate more in my head.
Bonds are discounting a strengthening economy. I'm not bullish on Oil due to the supply side momentum, but the recent reaction aligns with that of bonds as well. Bonds might in fact be telling us the 'hard data' is there and it might be turning the corner. This creates upward pressure on the entire curve discounting a stronger economy and an expectation of higher long term inflation.
Oh - with this action we also have the Net Interest Expense of course increasing again on a relative basis and the 'Credit Risk' even Bessent openly addressed still on the table.
The Choke might play a bigger role as the economy tries to claw its way forward but finds itself choked back by rising yields. I'm open to this and monitoring. Certain sectors of the economy and geos might start springing to life as the economy still works through all the dead weight from 'Biden'.
None Of Us Can Predict Inflation, But We All Understand Food and Energy
Noted below, an entire huge chunk of society missed a tidal wave of you know . . . . . . . actual inflation . . . . . . . . only to come back recently to predict and expect record high inflation. Got it.
Meanwhile - on Planet Reality this will neither "make Powell cut" nor alarm the Fed in my view. The real importance here (mostly 2nd chart) is to understand that making food and energy as local and regional as possible is what can set a foundation for relatively understandable and containable inflation.
Get food and energy supplies, logistics, and infrastructure under control. At least then the prices are reflective of something that resembles the truly required things necessary to make such food and energy and deliver it.
Services inflation? Very tough to predict and can be a wildcard. But here is where I can see it experiencing upwards pressure from a stronger global economy (along with some resumption in commodity inflation). Do you know how much "AI will cost me monthly" next year or two years from now? Yeah, me neither. Do you know what your dentist plans on charging in five years? Yeah, me neither.
Mining Transaction Fees
Oh TiNA, instead of the games maybe just tell us if this is for real this time? Mining Transaction fees, in my view, could strengthen any type of bullish overall movement with a self-reinforcing of the ecosystem.
RobinHood Has 'Eyes Full of Wonder'
RobinHood acquires WonderFi to launch themselves into the Canadian 'crypto' space. 'Eyes full of wonder' apparently:
My First Bitcoin Grant
Very cool. BitcoinMagazine.com reports that My First Bitcoin received a grant to help educate more people about Bitcoin.
Mining Update
Hedges added. Nibbling Long UVIX. If BTC retracts and/or corrects, more than likely VIX elevates at least somewhat. If BTC and QQQ both go straight up, UVIX dives but daily mining revenue is up. If QQQ corrects but Bitcoin holds, UVIX rises. If QQQ and BTC correct, UVIX rockets. TiNA lightened up more than half.
I only like this play with the current setup, VOL extended down and BTC extended up.
Still holding USD longs.
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Matthew Wong
Blue Night
