Bitcoin Observations
This is NOT investment advice.
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Bitcoin Weekly
It blasted past 91Kish - doesn't mean it won't end up spending time with 91K though does it? Watch the weekly MF.
Bitcoin 4HR
No doubt about it, seeing substantially more bullish action on lower time frames such as this 4HR here:
Risk On/Off
Before diving into the charts, let's take a look at the below chart from Morgan Stanley looking at earnings revisions:
Nobody can blame anyone for being bogged down with Tariff Mania, but at the end of the day the above is certainly playing a role as well. The blue circle highlights the 2022 headwinds that equities encountered, and we can see now that Tariff Mania is causing an even more severe negative revision to earnings in aggregate (looking mainly at larger cap companies). Tesla and Google earnings are not the same as "Trump's tariffs will cause inflation!!!!!!" Inflation concerns, with the bond market chiming in here, are one thing. Earnings and cash flows are another, and they do and will impact equities.
Long winded explanation for the following: people might be getting giddy if equities keep trying to put this rally together, but personally I become more and more skeptical the higher it goes and the more MAs it clears. Just something to keep in mind. That said, we will play it using the same framework we have been.
Dating TiNA can be wild and crazy. She's volatile and very wild at times. For these reasons and others I take chips off the table for sure. TiNA out for now and will come back to her and to a very recent breakout that provided a very juicy return quickly. If I'm wrong I'm wrong but even so other entries will present themselves if the rally is for real. Not sure if it is ready to completely break out of this blue box decisively just yet (this can change between now and the weekend update fyi):
Firm Whose Founder Serves In Trump's Cabinet Making More Moves
Doesn't do anything for or against the price today or tomorrow or next week - but more moves coming from those that are highly connected to ongoing decisions and strategies being evaluated for the U.S. and global economy. Cantor, Tether, and BitFinex expand their dealings with each other.
Banking License Applications Pile Up
According to The Wall Street Journal, firms such as Coinbase, Circle, BitGo, Paxos are eagerly pursuing banking licenses given the change of temperature towards 'crypto' inside DC. Regardless of how a 'Bitcoin Maxi' may or may not view this, I absorb it as more signal and evidence of the advancement of the Bitcoin ecosystem in general. None of us will get everything we want. Bitcoin won't advance to where you want it to be without any cooperation with society and government. Take the generally bullish news and ride it - at least that's my take.
Bitcoin and YouTube . . . . . . . . . . . . . Things Don't Gas As Fast As You'd Like
YouTube turns 20. If you're out there building something whether it is building on Bitcoin or not . . . . . . . hang in there. I can't remember when I first heard of YouTube much less when I may have tinkered with it. I'm pretty sure it was after 2015. That is fascinating. I didn't even know about YouTube until after it was ten years old and was already acquired. Keep plugging away. Things take time.
Solo Mining Machines Clear Sales Milestone
Hackernoon.com reports on the Bitaxe solo miner clearing 10,000 units sold. Interesting project and space to track and follow for many reasons one being to see just how far this solo, portable, compact, or mini-mining if you will can and will go. I have no idea but am watching.
To Even Be 'Allowed' To Be A Finalist . . . . . . . . . . . Long Way Since 2009
How did Reuters get this by Liz Warren, Greta, and AOC? But, but, but we've been told for years now that we are all neanderthals unless we immediately abolish fossil fuels.
Mining Update
Well - hunkering down, improving and increasing trades/hedges, maintaining higher cash balances, and clearing out all ST debt certainly are not and were not fun and glorious activities. But - perhaps it will be beneficial. In terms of the mining business - can go any way now to include holding out longer on BTC to fiat conversions to cover costs. My forward play will end up as a modest loss but the fleet is considerably bigger now than when we started. Let's see what happens.
Additionally - in terms of the mining business I will be positioned accordingly for any failures at the 91Kish level. If it fails and moves with energy (based off of many factors I assess) below 91Kish then I'll deploy hedges that are meaningfully larger than I have to date in this context.
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Alex Grey
The Seer