Bitcoin Observations
This is NOT investment advice.
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Trump Jawbone Ignites Most Bullish/Deceptive Weekly Candle in Years . . . . . And It Burns At Both Ends
Trump pumped Bitcoin on a low volume Sunday when it was very, very ripe for a short squeeze type of spike. How much of that capital that came in on Sunday is sticking around? Not much. Here's how I see this little scorecard from a recently published analysis of the Yen Carry Trade which contained a checklist of the good and bad vibes hitting risk now:
Just my opinion and view, but I don't see how Trump's jawboning can solve a Risk Off challenge nor do I see how BTC avoids being linked to Risk Off anytime soon. This doesn't mean I am saying the bull run or bullish action is over, just another plea/reminder for some realism. Some may think "Bitcoin is too big to get pushed around now" . . . . . . . ehhhh not so sure about that.
The market wants growth. Tariffs make for nice headlines and will likely ding growth in the short term, but in my view the market wants to see where the growth will come from to counter the much needed government cleanup. Market has been sniffing out lower growth since mid-January and has yet to see or hear anything different to alter its course IMHO. Bonds are getting a "flight to doomsday" bid but will be healthier long term on a sustained growth path (market will know Bessent is flush and can pay all the bills and optimize).
Oil dumping helps Japan's inflation with regards to import cost structures, but it might make JGB rates move opposite of what Powell seemingly is pleading for (he'd like them higher and the BOJ acting a lot tougher - seemingly).
Trump is now jawboning the FX markets as well lecturing China and Japan about FX weakness. I'm not sure China plans on listening to him, but hmmmm why is Trump now pressuring Japan to be more hawkish?
Side Note: Trump pumps crapcoins because he wants a "crypto bubble" having just 3.75 years left he understands the benefits of job, income, and wealth gains (my opinion, yes we need a couple new growth bubbles if that is what it takes).
China Stacks More Bitcoin Than Trump Does for America?
Rumors and chatter . . . . . . . . .
Near Term Forwards Bring Powell Off The Fence?
And the DXY is signaling as well . . . . . . . yes USD down weak econ but also front-running Powell pivot back to dove?
Just my personal view stab in the dark - maybe ease in by first tipping they will stop selling?????
TGA Drain And So What
Yes, a little dip recently but still looks to me like Bessent has a fat wallet.
Strategic Bitcoin Reserve
Here's my take. Every single country should do it and Game Theory is and will be in play. However - in the right here and right now my expectations are quite low in terms of impact on price/volume. You should know how it goes with Congressional recesses, breaks, vacations, etc. - before you realize it that becomes a 2026 or 2027 thing. All it takes at the State level is for someone or some group of people to block/stall it. Not everyone agrees with your ideology around Bitcoin for those that are very pro Bitcoin.
I realize one of the 50 States could push this across the finish line at any moment, but even still won't they also then proceed to committees and meetings about how to store it, buy it, manage it, etc.
Until there is a mandated auto-bid under Bitcoin from a government entity with the capacity to consistently allocate and buy . . . . . . . then the SBR is if anything a net drag because of all the hype and anticipation built up.
Hello, ding, ding, ding. Politicians want more of the "Bitcoin vote" so of course they'll string you along. If anything - Trump's inclusion of nonsense crap coins in his promotion will only confuse and delay things.
Germany Starts to Think Growth
Germany is coming out swinging with fiscal spending, and the Dax has been on a tear as well. We'll see what happens but I was expecting some major government spending from America - yes more spending. Maybe it nets out as spending gradually dropping overall, but I'm thinking America needs massive, massive spending on infrastructure. Focus should be on energy and agricultural infrastructure in my view along with transportation and logistics.
RRP So What
Many seem to think/want QE to magically appear with JPow slammin' 100B a month in UST with the flick of the switch. Sure, that could happen. I don't see it as an automatic handoff though. Here's my take on RRP . . . . . . . . WHY do we have this huge bump here shown inside the green circle? Tells me whatever it is (and I have my own suspicions and thoughts) it was very historic and monumental.
The same banks buying from the Fed under RRP (yes, the first transaction is the Fed selling . . . . and THEN it buys back the junk no questions asked . . . . . passing around hot potatoes) dancing along without MTM (Mark to Market), well have they found another solution? As long as the 10YR is say above 400 BPS or so the very same banks likely have the same or worse balance sheet problem. That's the main reason I said to watch bank equities for the shiniest symbol.
All I know for sure is something very significant caused RRP to peak over $2T.
Bessent Talks More Reality
In a recent interview, stated it's "Trump's economy" in 6-12 months . . . . . . . . the Powell/Bessent/BOJ shuffle wonder what music they listen to? They want/need the econ data to tank to show everyone an even more crisp picture of reality.
Bitcoin Daily Chart With Money Flow . . . . . And Liquidation Heatmap
Money flow on the daily still negative and a rejection at that 94.5Kish. Not sure anything is in the clear and away from significant volatility.
And the liquidation heatmap (exchanges and market makers are paid to match up orders):
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No purple during this correction - yet.
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Matthew Wong
North
