Bitcoin Observations
This is NOT investment advice.
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Bitcoin Waddles Into Fed Meeting . . . . . . . But Which Fed?
When you stop and think about it, perhaps one of the bigger stories since the election is the diminishing role of the Fed. Seems like we see and hear more from the Treasury and Trump than we do from the Fed, and I'm talking about more than just two straight meeting nothing burgers.
Market heads in expecting no actual moves and hanging in anticipation of the projections for the rest of 2025. Needless to say anyone that claims they know exactly what is going on is full of it.
I've tossed around a slightly dovish/flat stance of indicating they will stop selling UST. Bessent needs to be the main seller. I don't know if that will happen this week, but it strikes me as a methodical step into easing facing uncertainty yet signaling liquidity isn't being stomped out permanently.
DXY and Gold are screaming easing and liquidity, are they not?
QQQ kinda bouncing around on light volume heading into Fed day:
US yields we're told "under control" but not exactly dropping either:
Firm Data Confirms State of Drifting and Floating
Glassnode published more excellent data recently, so let's see how much it aligns with the "stagflationary mehhh quagmire" we opined about over a month ago. Our contention was that the markets were in some ways lulled into a state of dizziness and hanging by a thread constantly waiting and anticipating some type of new, external demand shock - the result being listless upside movement, widespread fear and anxiety, with chop and a grind downwards.
Recent entrants aren't thrilled and they are very nervous, but we've seen much worse:
Longer term holders digging in much more -
And what do you know, institutions easy come and easy go . . . . .
All in all, someone might call this a bit of a stagflationary mehhh quagmire. Nobody knows anything definitively. Liquidity is key, and not just for Bitcoin. It's not as easy as simply pointing to a global M2 chart. Those charts depict large, gradual, and sustained shifts across the globe. Within a 30-90 day time period - something which shows up as an overlooked blip on a global M2 chart - Bitcoin could fall 50% easily or rise 200% easily.
Rumors Swirl About More American Involvement . . . . . . Do They Match The Price/Volume Action?
Apparently the rumors on fintwit and/or socials are jumping with speculation that DoD will step into BTC mining in some way. Well - we do know they notched the SBR and the administration has been getting deeper and more involved with Bitcoin. The administration also seems to have left behind other coins (perhaps temporarily, who knows). It's not that big of a stretch to see America do even more with Bitcoin now that the SBR formality is in the rear view mirror, and this is rational speculation given what's happened in my view - whether you are for or against Bitcoin.
Personally - I think if every nation fortified its own infrastructure and resources related to domestic production of energy, food, and Bitcoin . . . . . . . . the world would migrate towards a much more peaceful place. I would expect more from America, but how that impacts price/volume in the here and now is a different story.
Rumors swirl and we have an FOMC meeting and tenuous and dubious upside moves, so here we are with a low volume floating situation -
Bitcoin 4HR:
Potential landing zone might be creeping up as the potential sellers set up a bigger wall above:
South Korea Rejects BTC Reserve, Regurgitates IMF/DC FUD
South Korea - in the midst of impeachments, arrests, incarcerations, looming martial law - states it has no need for real money and rejects a Bitcoin Reserve. The Central Bank cites volatility and IMF guidelines (come on, be honest, did LaGarde write your statement for you) as reasons for balking. Who's running South Korea in reality, the 'Good Guys' or 'Bad Guys'? Very important economy in Asia and globally so let's see what happens.
Tether Swinging For The Fences
Tether increased its stake in a major Bitcoin mining firm to 20%. Tether deployed $700M into Rumble. Tether aligned with the Lightning Network. Russia has used USDT and BTC to transfer value. Hmmmmmmm. Tether has Lightning, a big interest in BTC mining, and its own communications platform.
German Government Paves Way for Fiscal Stimulus
And the market will take this as confirmation that Bessent/Trump stay on the non-QE, non-liquidity hose, and austerity drive? Time will tell. The German parliament passed debt reform. This paves the way for much more fiscal stimulus from Germany and by extension from other EU nations that may/might follow in the footsteps of the nation that was once and could be the major economic engine of the EU. So, will Trump's tariffs and jawboning "make all these other countries spend money" and comfort the US bond market "because it means the US won't have to spend/waste as much"? Time will tell.
African Bitcoiners Spotlights Mining in Africa
Some very interesting content from Bitcoiners.Africa regarding the growth and expansion of Bitcoin mining in Africa.
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Matthew Wong
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