This is NOT investment advice.
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Bitcoin Weekly
The weekly is looking much better, though I personally don't see any type of "all clear" or "off to the races" signals just yet (not that they would be concrete anyways). Note the blue on the 94K-95K zone and more on that below in the 4HR. Definitely improving and strongly leaning bullish.
Bitcoin 4HR
It wants to run. Not completely shaken free from QQQ but showing more Relative Strength vis a vis QQQ and vis a vis the market overall. Keeps getting shot down trying to break above 94K which has come into play before. I wouldn't rule out some time being spent closer to 91Kish and during this past week it did dip briefly below 92K.
Typical market scenario where the emotions of many want it to go straight up from here, but retroactively we can often see that is not how things play out.
Most bullish action perhaps would be some gentle testing of 91Kish, refuel the jets, and then try and break above 94K/95K from there. Let's see how it goes.
Break below 91Kish on volume is very bearish.
Let's dive in with Glassnode to see what we have here.
Short term holders profit/loss ratio right around the 'breakeven' or 'deadlock' levels, so which way is it gonna be?
Selling into strength? Just the usual or is this saying something about that 94Kish? Realized profits, broken down into an hourly flow, show a strong surge into this rally. Note the price/volume behavior after these spikes - it does not tend to immediately skyrocket but rather consolidate/correct:
Derivatives markets, in terms of funding rates, suggest traders are tilted more to the short side with this run up to 94Kish and 91Kish below us:
Over a longer time period, investors are gradually paying less to be long in effect. These funding rate dynamics could, emphasis on could, set up the so called 'short squeeze' types of scenarios. Or, market is so efficient and good it knows rejection at 94Kish is in motion?
Liquidation heat map from Coinglass.com:
Bitcoin Bottom Line:
- Bullish signals off the charts really at this point in terms of FA/Macro
- Chart and market action improving significantly, Money Flow coming back but not full throttle yet on higher Time Frames
- 91Kish and up to 94K/95K what happens here? Is there a nice, calm back and forth setting up a breakout? Does the market test everyone yet again with some sharp wicks BELOW 91K to shake the trees?
- Patience and prudence, the market tends to not give you exactly what you want in the time sequence order that you would prefer
Risk On/Off - Short Squeezes, 'Ramp It and Camp It', 'Shorts torched' Not Enough To Tie Me Up
Repeatedly over the last few weeks I, along with likely many of you, have been leaning in expecting a counter-trend rally. Well - we got it. Did we play it absolutely perfectly? No. Did we play and take advantage? Yes. Now what?
I dumped TiNA on Wednesday during the first 45 minutes of action after yet another good 'ole "Ramp It and Camp It" session seemed incoming with jawboning jacking the futs 500+ points higher on the Nasdaq. Senses told me in the very short term "perhaps as good as it gets" so we bailed for now. We have all seen sessions where the market opens up huge and either camps there or drifts lower throughout the day. I'm not thrilled with the gaps shown below, choppy action, short squeezes leading the way, and overall lack of ultimate trust in anything currently. That said - I do think that overall . . . . . . . . this rally could have some legs. Sure it's mildly amusing to see headlines about shorts getting torched but is that the foundation for a legit and sustainable rally?
But . . . . . . is it going to rocket straight through and well above the 21-day EMA without any type of consolidation or retest? I'll wait to find out rather than chasing.
There are some leaders breaking out but it's still very fickle (I pinky promise, wink wink, I won't sell if you don't sell).
Smallies still look better overall for me and with a better risk/reward profile not to mention a cleverly, distinctly better looking chart:
How long before we see more fireworks and eventual intervention of some sort between Fed/Treasury/POTUS? Data from Bank of America and courtesy of ZeroHedge.com:
Overall regarding Risk On/Off - facing the proverbial fork in the road perhaps in my view. Either gentle and controlled tests of some levels below and then more bullish action, or a rejection from certain levels is getting underway very soon. It is plausible it goes straight up particularly if something sets up another "Ramp It and Camp It" on Monday - not my type of play. We'll see how Monday opens.
Near Term Forward Spread
This represents the market's opinion about where it sees the 3-Month T-Bill Rate 18 months from now relative to today's 3-Month T-Bill Rate. Translation - if this is declining the market is expecting the Fed to move ST rates lower than where they are now. It does not guarantee Fed cuts but Powell is on the record stating he is a fan of this metric.
Bessent Blasts IMF and World Bank . . . . . . . Blastoff for BTC and Gold/Silver?
In a scathing and aggressively blunt verbal demonstration directed at the World Bank and IMF, Treasury Secretary Bessent really blasted these institutions if you ask me. He was very blunt:
- IMF and World Bank need to get back on mission and stay there, drop all the woke garbage and nonsense
- Energy globally needs to be abundant and efficient to foster and sustain global growth
- Punish bad actors
- Help with honest intention countries making the right moves (Bessent stumps for Argentina specifically)
- Hold China accountable and stop coddling them like a toddler
So what? This is more signal and perhaps VERY STRONG signal about America's intention to keep plowing forward with the 'Trump Reset' or whatever one chooses to call it.
Is this a nod of the head for Bitcoin and Gold/Silver blasting off more as Bessent blasts these global, self anointed Masters of the Universe? In other words - "you guys are garbage, and America and the markets will go our own way".
After all, why exactly has Gold gone vertical with the dollar plummeting? Bitcoin hasn't exactly been completely ignored either. All three of these things are strongly suggestive of markets discounting balance sheet expansion specifically, and not necessarily an obsession with rate cuts purely. The 2YR standing like a statue waiting for JPow is another signal. Markets more tied to the actual rate cuts (2YR, equities) not moving as decisively as USD (stay tuned though for my USD play?), Gold, BTC.
Long USD, Hammer The F*&(%n 2YR?
Yup, I'm getting a bit intrigued by using a trade/hedge to potentially get long the dollar. Correct - long. Not short. We'll see how it evolves. Long the 2YR as well could be back in play again. Yes I know the dollar "should crash" every single day since the Fed might ultimately print and nobody will ever invest in American assets again, or so the whole world says right about now. Exactly why in part . . . . . . . . . .
Bloomberg's Simon White Lays Out Option B - Inflate It Away
Perhaps it's not front of mind right now with all of the turbulence and headline rhetoric wild swings, but that pesky 'ole debt problem has most certainly not gone away or improved. In an useful and helpful piece, Simon White from Bloomberg lays out the Option B we presented multiple times here (and White has been on top of as well). As a fresh reminder: A) deflationary collapse everything plummets and BTC holds up the best, or B) inflate away the debt by voraciously growing nominal GDP. White depicts how the UK actually pulled this off post-WW2:
Extra emphasis is needed here to again reiterate this is Nominal GDP - meaning this could present as "hey look at all this growth" while hiding inept and paltry real, organic growth above and beyond inflation. Spend fiat, save BTC? It's worth a look. Your call.
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