For the cryptocurrency market to return to a state of normal recovery in 2026, the resolution of regulatory uncertainty and overall market stability are the most critical factors.

The liquidation of approximately $19 billion in futures positions in October 2025 continues to weigh on the market, although the remaining investors are gradually absorbing the impact of that shock.

If cryptocurrency-related bills such as the Clarity Act and the Genius Act are passed, regulatory uncertainty would be significantly reduced, potentially leading to a substantial increase in institutional investor participation.

Stability in traditional financial markets is also an important factor in the recovery of the crypto market. A stable environment across risk assets, including equity markets, is necessary for confidence to return.

If rates stay low and drop 1~2 more times, crypto could bounce back faster but we don’t know for sure yet.

If regulation clears and markets stabilize by 1Q or H1 at the latest  crypto will enter a full bull market.