$BTC is trading in the range where it's been for roughly 2 weeks. You should wait for a dip, right?
Strangely, the data suggest that it is now more of a bargain (at the exact same price) than it was 2 weeks ago.
To explain, we're going to use the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) for data. It is among the easiest of on-chain data to grasp. It's simply price sold / Price Paid.
In the last bull market, it rose above 1.3. In the March cycle hype, post-BTC ETF launch, it surpassed 1.35. Those extremes have served as contrarian signals historically.
In a market with loose financial conditions, it appears that any reading below 0 (i.e., any negative reading) is a contrarian positive signal. You can see that in the image below.
Note, however, that this is very much a context-relative indicator. You need some other assurance that the market is in an upward trajectory. Otherwise, you'll be buying the crash.
And where do we stand presently?
The reading is 1.067.
Relatively speaking, this means that $BTC is more of a bargain now than it was (roughly) 14 days ago, despite having effectively the same ~$97,000 price. That's at least what this one data point suggests.
Happy Trading!
-Sebastian Purcell, PhD
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