We’re So Back! Right?

In the immediate term? It looks like it. The only news about tariffs is good news--as negotiations are lowering levels “substantially.” These are not ending, however. While it’s foolish to miss a rally, you want to have a trader’s frame of mind with this one. Be ready to sell quickly and only buy coins with strength + attractive pricing.

1 Only Buy What’s Winning: Above the 200-Day Rule

The easiest way to find a coin with strength is to pick one that’s above its 200 day simple moving average--which will be the red line in the coins we look at. Most of the current price action is from coins that have fallen too far to be considered viable candidates at the moment. I love NEAR, for example, but it is down 69.2% from its recent high in December, and it would need to rise another 75.9% just to reach the SMA 200. There just isn’t an overall positive trend yet.

2 Too Hot to Buy? Use This Rule Instead

We use 2 rules of thumb to assess relative attractiveness. For big coins like BTC: the 20/40 rule. For smaller coins like NEAR or PEPE: the 30/60 rule. Using Bitcoin as an example: If BTC would need to drop 20% to hit its 200-day SMA, it’s already too pricey. If 40%, you’re likely near a top. Use 30% and 60% in the same way for smaller coins. I have a course on this that explains this in greater detail, but this is good enough for us right now.

3 Bitcoin ( $BTC ): The Safe Bet That Might Still Run

Using these criteria, strength + attractiveness, BTC looks like a nice potential buy. Its current price rests about 5.5% above its SMA 200. Remember, the basic rules of bubble trading suggest that you’d sell if it closed below that SMA 200 -- which might be tomorrow for all we know. You could lose money here. Or, BTC might challeng its all-time high and you’ll be in a nice place for a potential ~20% return.

4 Maker ( $MKR ): Breakout or Bust

Maker is rebranding as SKY, but you can trade both coins. At the moment, its price is some 6.3% above the SMA 200. That’s still a good risk-adjusted entry if it breaks out above its previous top at $1735. You’re looking at better than a 1 (risk) to 2 (reward) potential bet. It’s still a bet, though.

5 Tron ( $TRX ): Tron’s Got a Setup (Even If You Don’t Trust It)

I still worry that Tron is a kind of scam, but in the short term its trading area looks like an attractive risk to reward setup. It could decline a bit over 7% before crossing below the SMA 200, and it has held up surprisingly well through the recent turbulence. Looks like a potential 1:2 risk to reward set up also.

6 Concluding Thoughts: This Rally Has a Timer

The reality of the tariff situation is that a high degree of these global tariffs will remain in place. Powell will not cut unless he is forced to do so. There will be real economic drag on the world’s largest economy. But most of those deadlines are some 70 days out from the present, so we can live in blissful ignorance for now. If you’re willing to be an active trader, now might be the time to test out a few positions.

NFA. DYOR.

Happy Trading!