Bitcoin is at an all-time high and Ethereum is making a comeback. Trump isn’t even in office yet (and won’t be for months). Is it all the Trump narrative’s doing?
Yes and no. That’s because the Trump Narrative isn’t one story; it’s three.
Trump’s election does change the prospects of (1) the BTC narrative, (2) the Gensler narrative, and (3) the manosphere narrative. It also shifts attention away from existing narratives, such as AI, RWAs, and Murad meme coins.
I’m going to review all these changes. To start, I note that our job is to assess these developments only as they impact financial markets. That doesn’t mean that I or my team don’t care deeply about the social and political implications of these developments. The editorial impartiality we take is strategic. Unless we put those concerns on pause, we won’t be able to focus on the financial aspects of them. And however you feel about these developments, knowing how to make money in the coming world is likely to help.
1. The BTC Narrative
What’s at stake are Trump’s claims that he wants the US to begin forming a strategic reserve of BTC (source). This is positive news insofar as it immediately removes a BTC selling overhang, namely that the US might sell it’s very large holdings that it has confiscated from various nefarious agents. It would also add buying pressure on BTC and cement its status within the global financial system. This would represent an enormous gain for digital assets generally.
My verdict: this is an overdone narrative for the moment.
The gain from removing a selling-pressure overhang is real, but that’s all we’re likely to see for years. The strategic reserve of BTC is a long way off because it will need the cooperation of congress. I don’t even know if Trump has the governing ability to pull it off. It may never happen (remember Trump’s repeated promises about building a border wall?).
2. The Gensler Narrative
Gary Gensler, the current chair of the SEC, is by miles the crypto industry’s most hated personality. Elizabeth Warren is likely second, but a distant second.
This narrative follows from Trump’s statement that he’ll “fire” Gensler “on day one” (source). The point is likely moot as it’s customary for SEC chairs to step down when a new president takes office. I think he’ll deliver because he basically has to do nothing. The question is: will it matter?
My verdict: this narrative is relatively grounded.
It is unlikely that the various SEC suits will go forward quickly or at all until a clear regulatory framework is in place. This means that UNI and AAVE will be fine. POL received a bump (it’s also being sued) and even Cardano (ADA) jumped. But that doesn’t mean that Synthetix (SNX) can go back to posting oil and stock derivative coins.
DeFi isn’t totally back yet. Likely the most obvious winner is ETH, since DeFi is ETH’s killer app. It has a long way to go in catching up to BTC this cycle and now its future looks more promising.
3. The Manosphere Narrative
If you don’t know what the manosphere is, well God bless your soul. You’re also likely not under the age of 30 or a man. Trump has long represented a (re)turn to patriarchal gender roles–overturning Roe v. Wade was just one step in that direction.
The manosphere–a loose association of public personalities, vloggers, and podcasters ranging from Joe Rogan and Jordan Peterson to Andrew Tate and Nick Fuentes–has been Trump’s ardent supporter in this return.
Few of these personalities are as troubling as Nick Fuentes (who is also a white supremacist). Peterson’s newer work, for example, has shifted in a more helpful direction.
Meme coins represent various features of this cultural space. For example, the Giga Chad coin, based on the model Ernst Khalimov, represents a kind of masculine ideal. Ernst (and his team) post fairly wholesome items. The meme, as is the case with most cultural symbols, exists in a more complex dimension.
SIGMA is a Gen Z “brain rot” phrase meaning the best, but it likewise crosses into the manosphere realm to indicate “the best man.”
My Verdict: The Maurad narrative is over?
Both coins are favored by Maurad, but his top coin SPX 6900, is treading water. My read is that the manosphere narrative, post Trump, boosted these already well-known coins and will continue to support them. It’s not clear to me that the other coins in his portfolio will perform as well.
What’s Out For The Moment?
Now you know what’s in post-Trump’s election. What’s out?
I wouldn’t say that anything is “out” exactly. Simply delayed until the market receives a further injection of liquidity–which will be facilitated by the ending of QT (likely December). Until then, AI, RWAs, and non-manosphere memes will probably trade within range.
In short, the market will be up generally in a bull run, but the narrative landscape always changes. Much of the Trump trade is overdone in the near term, but we have a sense of what will succeed now. Dip buying in a bull market makes sense so watch out for that.
Happy Trading!
― Sebastian Purcell, PhD
