Admittedly, February + bull isn't the best portmanteau, but this is a tough one. Pumpuary?
The point is that if you take BOTH the historical performance of $BTC and $ETH into consideration, you'll find that February is the best month for cryptos--at least, historically.
I'm not saying that you should be 100% risk-on, but do think about your portfolio if you're mostly off sides (in cash).
Let's look at the data.
1 Bitcoin's Best Months (Historically)
The data on $BTC show that there are two outstanding months: February and October. November is a close third, but given the volatility of $BTC, you want to look at the median and not the average return.
Historically, it's the best month in the first half of the year.
2 Ethereum's Best Months
The story with $ETH is the same if we use a slightly different metric: most months in the green. If you choose median, the honors go to January and then probably April.
Anyway, it's a good month.
Also, the entire first half of the year is historically one of the best for $ETH.
3 Federal Reserve Considerations
Of course, we need the Federal Reserve to act mostly as expected--keeping rates where they are but signaling an openness to further rate cuts during the year.
If the FOMC puts in language (in their minutes) about ending QT that would be extra bullish, but we don't need that. Just nothing more hawkish than anticipated.
4 The Trump RWA Play
Everyone now knows that World Liberty Financial, the DeFi protocol run by Trump's sons, is extra bullish on $ETH, but we don't know why.
It seems likely that they have Real World Asset plans envisioned and $ETH, unlike $SOL, is actually decentralized. It's also battle-tested and doesn't crash as often (though it does become expensive).
I'd also watch: $link, $ondo, $AAVE
5 The Speculation
This one is longer term, but we know that Trump issued a directive for the exploration of a Strategic Digital Asset Reserve -- not a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.
If some other coin than $BTC is used as part of the reserve, the most obvious play is $ETH.
That's your case for $ETH rising to $20k.
6 Concluding Thoughts
February is historically an outstanding month for both $BTC and $ETH-- the best if you use historical metrics.
While $SOL is great for retail meme-coin gamblers, the game is going to change with a narrative shift toward RWAs. As annoying as $ETH is, it's clearly the best positioned to support the "big boy" money of institutional finance.
Be sure to have an exit plan (for better or worse), but history suggests we should be optimistic.
Happy Trading!
As always DYOR. NFA.
-Sebastian Purcell, PhD
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