As BTC moves sideways in a crab-like fashion, one of the most common questions I receive from community members is some version of: "When will BTC return to anything resembling its all-time high?" At present, my best estimate is late 2024, probably in the third quarter.
In making that estimate I am assuming that the halving has the effect that it has had historically—or something near that. My claim rests on 5 assumptions, which you can think of as steps, and I think they are plausible.
I The 5 Assumptions (Steps)
First, since BTC continues to be recognized as a commodity, even by Gary Gensler. I’m going to assume, as a result, that regulations don’t directly affect BTC.
Second, I’m going to assume that even if we have a recession, that it’s mostly done by Q1 of 2024.
Third, I’m going to assume that Grayscale’s win against the SEC will provide a pathway to spot ETFs for BTC—by Q1 of 2024.
- This matters because it will result in additional buying pressure.
Fourth, given #3, we’ll assume that buying pressure for BTC remains constant—at about the rate of July (which is a bit more than right now, but roughly in the same range).
- This is a conservative estimate, but I want to build in a margin of safety in this analysis.
Fifth, Bitcoin’s halving is in April of 2024, so supply to miners will drop in half. That does not mean that the volume available to purchase (= purchasing supply) will drop in half. Whales, after all, could decide to start dumping. But given spot ETF interest, I’m going to assume that won’t happen.
- Let’s thus assume that the purchasing supply drops by 10% as a result of the halving.
II The Implication
Those 5 assumptions support this one claim: after the April 2024 halving of BTC, the coin will experience a materially significant supply shock.
The effects get us to $60k and beyond rather quickly.
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III The Path to $60k and Beyond
To understand the implication, let’s assume BTC holds at its current price of $25k in January of 2024.
- That supply should be enough to make BTC jump 33% in about a month—I’d expect to maybe $40,000.
- My expectation is that there will be some anticipation buying before April. So, BTC will move from its $25k price to about $30k at the time.
- The 33% jump late April to May will make for a climb to $40k.
This will probably result in quite a few headlines—even by major outlets such as Bloomberg, the Wall Street Journal, and CNBC.
- That will result in FOMO (fear of missing out)
- And that’ll be good for another 33% climb from that point (at least).
And you’ll be at $60k by Q3 of 2024.
If the economy is at least OK, then this FOMO will build and the spot ETFs will allow far more investors to apply buying pressure to BTC.
Ultimately, I’d expect BTC to settle around $150k in 2025 if past historical trends are played out with a bit of dampening.
That’s about a 6.5x return from present values for roughly an 18-month hold. Not bad if you ask me. Of course, something could alter those assumptions, so do your own research.
Happy Trading!!
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Note: The author adapted this article from an answer to a Quora post.
