Greetings on this new week! The 27.93% Volatility (VIX) spike seen below is no joke. We can see people exiting the Stock Market out of fear and into Treasury Bonds, which is why the US10Y is down 8.27%. As more money goes into bonds, the lower the yields. The same is the case in DeFi for liquidity providers, right?
We know BTC and crypto follow the Stock Market because they are all risk-on assets. People right now want risk-off assets, hence the bond purchases and US Dollar hoarding, which has the DXY up 0.15% here.
Crude oil drives the Stock Market and, unfortunately, the Stock Market drives BTC. Especially with BTC futures contracts, because then the asset is getting its price from the derivative. It should be the other way around, in a Free Market. 😩 We do not have a Free Market when the New York Federal Reserve has a trading desk and buys stocks, bonds, mortage-backed securities with money created faster than if it grew on trees. But I digress.
I was going to invest in crypto last Saturday, but I came across the GBTC Unlocking Schedule below. Some people said flooding the market with BTC would cause a dip, others said it was done via OTC so it won't even be on the market of us commonfolk. All I know is I might invest some today, but only a fraction so that I have more cash left to buy crypto on at even better discount on July 22, if it drops.
If BTC falls, the next area of Support is $29,775.39 at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
Matic is currently $0.752 USD and we can see by the large green circle below, that is a huge area of support due to so many wallets that bought at that price range.
I was waiting for Solana to hit $27 to buy when it was in the $30-33 range but I'm pleasantly surprised it dropped to where it is at. In fact the price action of Solana inspired me to update some Technical Analysis and do this post.
On the Daily Chart we see the yellow arrow pointing to the red line, which is the 200 day Simple Moving Average. Ideally the price will touch it and bounce upward. It may take a few more days for that to happen, which could occur on July 22. However, if the price falls UNDER the red line: two areas of Support are $22.66 and $21.00. The pale-yellow, diagonal line extending to the bottom right has been a line of Resistance the last few days.
Friendly reminder that these are my thoughts and I am not a financial advisor, therefore I cannot legally give financial advice. Any gains or losses are to your credit, meaning I won't ask for a cut of your gains and I won't recompense any losses. 👍