TLDR: Donald Trump has pledged to deport 15 million people if re-elected, a plan that is unachievable and autocratic. His senior adviser, Stephen Miller, who has a history of promoting white nationalist views, would oversee this massive operation. The plan involves using the National Guard, local police, and federal agencies to conduct door-to-door searches, housing deportees in tent camps, and transporting them via military planes. Logistically and financially, the plan is impractical, estimated to cost around $210 billion, and requires an unprecedented expansion of immigration enforcement. Economically, it would devastate industries reliant on undocumented workers, causing labor shortages and inflation. Legally, it faces major challenges, including constitutional issues around birthright citizenship. The human cost would be immense, tearing families apart and creating a humanitarian crisis. This plan reflects a dangerous, authoritarian vision that dehumanizes immigrants and threatens democratic principles and human rights.

Donald Trump has repeatedly promised to deport 15 million people if re-elected, a plan that is as unachievable as it is authoritarian. During his first term, Trump made similar promises, vowing to deport 8 million people. However, he was thwarted by institutional resistance, competing priorities, incompetence, and his tendency to get distracted. This time, however, there is a plan in place. Although it is neither smart nor feasible, it is unapologetically autocratic.

Lisa Sherman Luna, executive director of the Tennessee Immigrant and Refugee Rights Coalition, argues that such a plan could only be attempted by those aspiring to authoritarian governance. She envisions soldiers marching through neighborhoods across the country, forcibly removing families from their homes. 

Major news outlets have explored Trump and his supporters' plans for immigration policy if he is elected again. These reports have garnered some attention but need to be more to reflect the gravity of what he is proposing. This is not mere bluster; Trump has made 15 million deportations a central part of his 2024 campaign, accompanied by a ramped-up dehumanization of immigrants to garner public support.

Stephen Miller, Trump's senior adviser known for his hardline immigration stance, will likely be in charge of this plan. Miller, who served the entirety of Trump's first term, has long been focused on reducing non-white immigration. His history includes promoting racist literature and white nationalist websites, reflecting a clear preference for whites over non-white immigrants. 

Miller's plan involves using the National Guard, state and local police, and other federal agencies to conduct door-to-door searches for undocumented immigrants, housing them in tent camps along the border, and then deporting them using military planes.

Trump's rhetoric about immigrants, describing them as diseased "animals" and "military-aged" threats, combined with Miller's proposed actions, suggests an approach that dangerously edges towards genocide. At the very least, it would create a massive humanitarian crisis. A coalition of MAGA factions has laid out "Project 2025," a blueprint for Trump's second term outlining an autocratic roadmap, including ending legal pathways for seasonal and agricultural workers, H1-B visas, and refugee humanitarian programs. The plan also seeks to cut federal aid to institutions aiding undocumented students. It requires federal contractors to employ most U.S. citizens.

The logistics of deporting 15 million people are staggering. Estimates suggest there are about 10 to 11 million undocumented immigrants in the U.S. Trump's plan, therefore, implies deporting legal residents or U.S. citizens. The Pew Foundation estimates that there are around 10 million undocumented immigrants. At the same time, the Department of Homeland Security puts the figure at 11 million, and the far-right Center for Immigration Studies estimates up to 14 million. This means Trump's promise to deport 15 million people includes deporting between 1 and 6 million legal residents or citizens.

Trump's plan involves using a massive deportation force, more significant than any police force currently in the federal government, potentially exceeding the size of the U.S. Army. Implementing such a force would require enormous resources. In 2017, ICE estimated the cost of deporting one person to be about $14,000 in today's dollars. Deporting 15 million people would, therefore, cost around $210 billion, surpassing the annual budget of the U.S. Army.

The practical challenges are immense. ICE and related agencies need more workforce for such a massive operation. Trump's plan would necessitate hiring an additional 530,000 immigration enforcement officers, a figure more significant than the combined active-duty forces of several branches of the U.S. military. The current infrastructure, including immigration courts, would also need to be drastically expanded, with over 17,000 new judges required to handle the increased caseload.

Moreover, Trump's plan would wreak economic havoc. Undocumented workers are integral to several industries, including agriculture, construction, and services. Their removal would lead to labor shortages, increased costs for goods and services, and potentially a severe economic downturn. The American Action Forum estimated that deporting 8 million immigrants would shrink the U.S. economy by 6.4% over 20 years, costing $1.6 trillion. Trump's plan to deport 15 million could result in even more significant economic damage.

Legally, the plan faces significant hurdles. The Supreme Court has historically granted the executive branch wide latitude in immigration enforcement, but implementing such a massive deportation effort would likely lead to numerous legal challenges. Birthright citizenship, enshrined in the Fourteenth Amendment, means that children of undocumented immigrants born in the U.S. are citizens. Trump's proposal to strip these individuals of their citizenship is unconstitutional and would provoke a significant legal battle.

The human cost of such a plan is immense. Deporting millions would tear families apart, leaving U.S.-born children without parents. The social and psychological impact on communities would be devastating. The proposed tent camps and mass deportations evoke historical atrocities, with conditions likely to be inhumane and dangerous.

In sum, Trump's plan to deport 15 million people is not only unfeasible and economically disastrous but also deeply rooted in an authoritarian vision that dehumanizes immigrants. It reflects a dangerous departure from democratic principles and human rights, threatening to create a humanitarian crisis of unprecedented scale. The very notion of attempting such a mass deportation should be a disqualifying factor in any presidential campaign, highlighting the extreme and dangerous direction Trump and his supporters intend to take the country.

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