TL;DR

In We Interviewed Hundreds of Israelis and Gazans – Here’s Why We Fear for the Ceasefire, Nils Mallock and Jeremy Ginges (The Conversation, February 12, 2025) analyze public attitudes in Israel and Gaza, highlighting profound psychological barriers to peace. They find that misperceptions of enemy motivations and declining support for the two-state solution make diplomacy increasingly tricky. In Will the Gaza Ceasefire Hold? Where Does Trump’s Takeover Proposal Stand?, Scott Lucas (The Conversation, February 12, 2025) explores Trump’s Gaza redevelopment plan, widely condemned as ethnic cleansing. He predicts that Israel will resume military operations before March, as diplomacy appears to be failing.

The article by Mallock and Ginges presents survey data showing that both Israelis and Gazans see their own violence as defensive while perceiving the other side’s actions as driven by hatred. This fuels deeper distrust and reduces support for negotiations. Since October 7, 2024, Israeli opposition to the two-state solution has risen from 46% to 62%, while less than half of Gazans still believe in its viability. These trends make long-term peace agreements unlikely.

The article by Lucas details the fragility of the ceasefire and Trump’s controversial Gaza plan. While Netanyahu accepted phase one of the truce under international pressure, far-right Israeli ministers Smotrich and Ben-Gvir oppose further negotiations. Trump has proposed a full-scale redevelopment of Gaza, which critics—including the UN and Arab nations—view as a plan for forced displacement. Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Jordan reject Trump’s approach, calling it an impractical and dangerous move.

Meanwhile, Trump has shifted from peacemaking rhetoric to outright support for Israeli military action. Both articles suggest that a return to war is more likely than a lasting ceasefire. Public opinion is hardening, and diplomatic efforts are weakened by deep-rooted distrust and geopolitical tensions.

Concluding Reflections

The findings of Mallock, Ginges, and Lucas suggest that the Gaza ceasefire is unlikely to hold, as psychological, political, and military dynamics work against peace. Public distrust in both Israel and Gaza fuels continued conflict, while Trump’s aggressive policy shift encourages military escalation. With Netanyahu under pressure from both hardliners and international actors, the most probable outcome is a renewed offensive before March.

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