TLDR

Myanmar’s opposition forces have gained substantial territory from the military junta. Still, ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) have also committed human rights abuses. While international support is essential for a post-junta transition, stakeholders must address EAO abuses to promote justice and stability in a future federal democracy.

Myanmar is currently facing its most severe conflict since the 2021 military coup, as opposition to the junta grows among various ethnic armed organizations (EAOs). Over 86% of the country is no longer under junta control, signaling the weakening of the military, also known as the Tatmadaw.

The Three Brotherhood Alliance (3BHA), a coalition of three EAOs—the Arakan Army (AA), the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA)—launched Operation 1027 in October 2023. This offensive secured significant territorial gains and reenergized the National Unity Government (NUG), Myanmar’s exiled democratic opposition.

While 3BHA’s military success is a significant blow to the junta, civilian casualties are mounting. The junta has escalated its use of airstrikes, targeting civilian infrastructure and Rohingya communities in Rakhine State. The conflict has left 2.7 million people displaced, with 15 million facing food insecurity. Human rights organizations have accused the junta of committing war crimes and crimes against humanity.

However, EAOs are not blameless. The AA has been accused of targeting Rohingya civilians, with one drone attack reportedly killing 200 people. The MNDAA and TNLA have committed forced recruitment, abductions, and civilian abuse. In a potential post-junta period, these abuses pose challenges for Myanmar’s transition to a federal democracy.

The international community must engage carefully, avoiding oversimplified narratives that cast EAOs as “good rebels.” A sustainable solution will require supporting the Spring Revolution’s legitimate aims and ensuring accountability for all human rights abuses. EAOs must transition from armed groups to legitimate political actors capable of governing. At the same time, victims of abuse must receive justice to prevent future cycles of violence.

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