All of us Bitcoin investors know that the asset operates in cycles where the currency's price fluctuates, with the Halving serving as a reference to guide the moments of Bullmarket and Bearmarket.
This variation does not follow an exact and accurate pattern for estimation, but over time, we have been able to identify some similarities in the long-term price behavior.
On average, market cycles, which include Bearmarket, followed by accumulation, then the Halving (which functions as an intermediary but not a uniform barrier of separation) and subsequently Bullmarket, last for 4 years.
Considering this similar market behavior over time in the long term, let's analyze the current moment of Bitcoin compared to the same moments experienced in this period in the last two 4-year intervals of the market.
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October 2015
Opening: $236.00
Closing: $314.17
Low: $235.62
High: $334.17
Variation between the beginning and end of the month (based on the opening price): 33%
Total variation within the month (based on the minimum): 42%
November 2015
Opening: $315.01
Closing: $377.32
Low: $301.00
High: $495.56
Variation between the beginning and end of the month (based on the opening price): 20%
Total variation within the month (based on the minimum): 64%
December 2015
Opening: $377.41
Closing: $430.57
Low: $349.46
High: $469.10
Variation between the beginning and end of the month (based on the opening price): 14%
Total variation within the month (based on the minimum): 34%
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October 2019
Opening: $8,299.72
Closing: $9,199.58
Low: $7,446.99
High: $10,021.74
Variation between the beginning and end of the month (based on the opening price): 11%
Total variation within the month (based on the minimum): 34%
November 2019
Opening: $9,193.99
Closing: $7,569.63
Low: $6,617.17
High: $9,505.05
Variation between the beginning and end of the month (based on the opening price): -18%
Total variation within the month (based on the minimum): 43%
December 2019
Opening: $7,571.62
Closing: $7,193.60
Low: $6,540.05
High: $7,743.43
Variation between the beginning and end of the month (based on the opening price): -5%
Total variation within the month (based on the minimum): 18%
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October 2023
Opening: $26,967.40
Closing: $34,667.78
Low: $26,558.32
High: $35,150.43
Variation between the beginning and end of the month (based on the opening price): 28%
Total variation within the month (based on the minimum): 32%
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Comparisons:
Octobers: +33% / +11% / +28%
Novembers: +20% / -18% / ?
Decembers: +14% / -5% / ?
Conclusions:
- The Octobers of 2015 and 2019 proved to be positive, and this year's October also shows the same, confirming that these months tend to be bullish in the year preceding the Halving.
- The Novembers of 2015 and 2019 exhibited divergences, indicating that an estimate for this year is inconclusive. However, an important piece of information we can highlight is the price variation within these periods. The largest variations occurred in the month of November (64% and 43%), indicating that this month can be highly volatile.
- The Decembers of 2015 and 2019 were positive and negative, respectively, suggesting an inconclusive pattern when examined individually. However, a noteworthy point is that even when the month of December closed positively in 2015, it lost momentum when compared to previous months of the same year. This might suggest that the performance of this month is inferior to the preceding one over the years.
In conclusion, I would like to reiterate that these analyses do not imply that the cycles follow a perfectly uniform pattern every four years. Cycles undergo changes constantly, and the context of each year reflects consequences in the market. The analyses were made for the sake of comparison to aid each investor's personal analysis. Best of luck to everyone!
