What Market Phase are we entering into has been the introductory question for our last appointments. Are we going to listen to the Bulls or the Bears? Are we going to see a Bull Market or a Bear Market?

Welcome to Surfing the Market, we are already at our 23th appointment and I hope that with these easy tech analysis we have helped you in some forms, even just to evaluate different market perspectives.

Let’s start from our usual weekly perspective

Price has taken off from the green support, going in two days to knock on the blue resistance, seeing some pull-back, mainly connected to the recovery of the DXY and some take profits.
Price has suffered the strong reaction of the Dollar Currency Index after three days of wide weakness.
The first day of weakness of the DXY has been Friday 21st October, when Bitcoin price did not show much reaction. I think because that sort of bearish engulfment on the DXY chart could be a simple fake move.
Monday showed a Doji with a small candle-body on the DXY while BTC and that where happened a real bearish engulfment on Bitcoin.
Tuesday 25th and Wednesday 26th have been the break out days, for DXY that broke the latest minimum from 4th and 5th October and Bitcoin jumped towards the blue resistance.
Wednesday evening I was holding a public trading educational session and I textually said, while Bitcoin was hanging at 20.800$: “I am seling a portion of BTC to try to get some profit at lower price, purchasing a higher amount of Bitcoin. That was the higher risk/higher reward position. The lower risk/lower reward will be waiting tomorrow and see how the price will behave, if the movement will continue upwards or we will see a drop, for further profit takes AND a potential bullish reaction of the DXY index”. Well, I actually took both positions. And here is what I have done

I will keep quoting myself:
“As said before, in my personal opinion Bitcoin price can only drop towards 15000$ if major bad news come up, like a huge electricity crisis, a mobile network crisis or a gas limitation from Russia.”

Screenshot on a D-TimeFrame of the Dollar Currency Index

Screenshot on a D-TimeFrame of Gold ($/oz)

Gold has been perfectly correlated as well to the DXY, meaning that also the Bitcoin rise was not fully merit of the asset itself, but it was more likely connected to a wider financial moment.

What do I expect from a daily perspective?

We are now seeing some uncertainties in this area, but volumes are still here and there is still some energy that can lead the price to break the blue line in the coming days. Anyway, today is Friday meaning that in the weekend we should expect lower volumes, with bigger impulses on Monday, with the USA stock market openings. 

50MA and 200MA gave to the price the same resistance that butter gives to a hot knife. No news here.

Ichimoku Clouds have been penetrated by the price and we are now close to the horizontal level from the Clouds, coming in the next days.

What to observe particularly?

I am looking at the blue level as a potential turning point for a short term trend.

I had recently received a question if the dollar and the crypto market were influenced by the increase of interest rates of the CBE (Central Bank of Europe).

Here are my two cents on this matter: “Crypto markets almost do not give a s**t about interest rates of BCE and dollar started plunging since Friday last week when the communication of the increase of interest rates from the CBE was officialised yesterday, meaning that there is no direct correlation.”

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None of what I write can represent a financial advice in any form. So Do your own research before taking any kind of action.