16 Year Bitcoin Price Cycle

By Tomadachi | Tomadachi | 17 Jun 2020

Some of you may have already heard of Bob Loukas.

He's a market cycle specialist with a background in computer science - specifically in developing financial trading and reporting software. 

Although he's an Aussie by birth, he has been living in New York for the last 20 years and this is where he runs his company, The Financial Tap.

He covers most financial markets and appears keen on precious metals, but his take on the likely progression of Bitcoin (BTC) in terms of price movement is probably what would interest most readers here.

Because of his background, Loukas believes the BTC price moves (and is likely to continue to move) in 4-yearly waves contained within a larger 16 year timeframe.

No Shilling Allowed

Before going any further, I want to make clear this isn't a shill for Bob Loukas.

I don't know the guy personally, I'm not on any commission from him or his company and I've never paid to use their services.

That being said, I am intrigued by market cycles, business cycles, life cycles, planetary cycles... anything cyclical in nature really... which is why I think Loukas' work is worth a look.

The easiest way to follow his take on events is either through his blog on his website or through his Twitter page where he posts a reasonable amount of free content for his 34,000+ followers... he recently said his going to take a break from social media but hopefully he'll be back soon.


As always though, you're recommended to do your own research (in cryptos, stocks, art, life partner, etc) before investing hard-earned cash in any forecast or prediction.

Ok, with that out of the way, let's move on.

The Concept

Loukas takes a long term view of BTC price and presents it as 4 blocks, each block being 4 years long. 

For visualisation purposes, I've took a screenshot of his latest YouTube video. This shows the easy-to-understand format but I'd highly recommend watching the video to fully understand his take on where all this is going.


The four coloured squares roughly represent these timeframes (as shown on the horizontal axis):

  • 2011-2015 Pink
  • 2015-2019 Green
  • 2019-2023 Blue
  • 2023-2027 Orange

Along the vertical axis we have the BTC price in USD.

The graph demonstrates the wide spread in price movement and is ideal for showing the bigger trends - all of which, to date at least, have fallen within Loukas' cycle prediction.

He suggests we are still are in a multi-year bull market although the inevitable spasmodic downward troughs will occur as the BTC marches upwards and onwards.

Hold Strong and Go Long(ish)

Currently, within the blue square timeframe, Loukas will not be pinned down to an exact price prediction, but we can see from his workings that BTC is expected to go to between $100,000 - $180,000. 

The end for this particular 16 year cycle (represented by the orange square) is forecast to be a blow-off top - and as you can see from the USD figures on the vertical axis this would take BTC into overbought territory at incredible price levels.

What is indicated to follow though, would be a brutal bear market that would likely last for 3 years or more... so anyone with BTC bags is advised to be on hyper marketwatch by the time we reach 2023. 

To pick up on his train of thought - and to see if you agree or disagree - it's best to check out his Only The Strong video in full:

Bob's Not An Altcoin Boy

Although he doesn't state it in these terms, Loukas could be viewed as a BTC maximalist because when he speaks about altcoins he says, "...there's some that have some adoption, there's some that have some great tech. I just don't know if we, as a society, are ready for that type of mainstream adoption at this point of the evolution of the technology..."

It's not that he is anti altcoins and freely admits that, "...some will do really well - I don't know which horse will do well. It's almost like saying here's a thousand horses and twenty of them are going to be absolutely phenomenal. If you back one of those twenty, you're going to get a hundred-x return or a thousand-x return but if you back one of the other nine hundred or so of those, they're basically going to fall and you're going have to put it to sleep. The odds aren't great at that point..."

To emphasise his view, he concludes by saying:

Bitcoin is superior by so much that it is a better risk-reward opportunity than anything that is out there...

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